XLM remains under $0.22 as rising derivatives open interest fuels bearish outlook
Stellar (XLM) is trading below $0.22 and showed less than 1% decline amid a broadly bullish crypto market where Bitcoin trades above $87k. Despite general market gains, XLM has failed to reclaim key resistance and bearish momentum is building. Derivatives data from Coinglass shows futures open interest (OI) surged to $112M within 24 hours (from $30M), while the long-to-short ratio sits at 0.91 — the highest in nearly a month. On the 4-hour chart XLM trades around $0.21; RSI is 43 (below neutral 50) and MACD lines are converging, indicating growing bearish pressure and trader indecision. Near-term technical risk: a retest of $0.20 (December 18 low) is possible, with a close below that level opening the path to the yearly low near $0.16 (October 10). Upside pivot remains at $0.22 if buying interest returns. Key trading considerations: monitor futures OI and long/short flows, watch 4-hour RSI and MACD for momentum shifts, and treat $0.20 and $0.16 as critical supports for stops or scaling strategies.
Bearish
The article points to rising bearish indicators for XLM driven primarily by derivatives flows and short-term technicals. A sudden jump in futures open interest (from $30M to $112M) alongside a long-to-short ratio below 1 indicates heavier downside positioning and increased leverage exposure that can amplify moves downward. Short-term chart readings (4-hour RSI at 43 and converging MACD) show momentum weakening and trader indecision, making a retest of $0.20 likely; a close below that would expose the October yearly low near $0.16. Historically, spikes in OI without price appreciation have preceded leveraged liquidations and deeper pullbacks in altcoins during risk-off rotations. For traders: this implies elevated downside risk in the short term — favor tight risk management, smaller position sizes, and stops below $0.20, while any long exposure should wait for clear reversal signals (higher RSI, MACD cross, or sustained close above $0.22). Longer term, fundamentals for Stellar weren’t discussed as supportive catalysts here, so unless derivatives positioning eases or on-chain activity improves, the bias remains negative until price proves recovery above resistance levels.