Analyst: XRP Could Hit ¥1,000 If US Regulatory Clarity and ETF Demand Continue
Japanese analyst Angorou says XRP could reach 1,000 yen (~$6.41) in 2026 if regulatory clarity and continued institutional demand persist. XRP traded near $1.99 (~300 yen) when Angorou published the view, down about 45% from a July 2025 peak of 542 yen. He traces XRP’s rise from ~75 yen in late 2024 — driven by US election-driven hopes of Ripple legal respite — through volatile 2025 moves. On-chain data show whale addresses (≥1M XRP) rose from 2,111 (Nov 6, 2024) to a 2,758 peak in Oct 2025, then fell to ~2,011 as prices declined, indicating shifting large-holder sentiment and weaker retail participation. Countering that, institutional demand appears strong: the first US spot XRP ETF launched in November 2025, followed by four more; XRP ETFs have recorded consistent daily inflows, totaling roughly $1.07 billion (~169 billion yen) and 25 consecutive inflow days since mid-November. Angorou highlights proposed US legislation to separate securities and commodities — if XRP is classed as a commodity and banks can use Ripple’s infrastructure, adoption and valuation could rise. Using historical XRP/BTC ratios (average 0.169, peaks 0.48), he models scenarios where XRP reaches ~780 yen without major Bitcoin moves, or surpasses 1,000 yen if Bitcoin rises above ¥20 million and reform occurs. Disclaimer: this is analysis, not financial advice.
Bullish
The article presents a bullish conditional case centered on two main drivers: sustained institutional ETF inflows and potential US regulatory clarity classifying XRP as a commodity. Recent price weakness and shrinking whale counts signal short-term downside risk and weaker retail interest, which can pressure price action. However, continuous ETF inflows (~$1.07B total and 25 straight inflow days) provide steady demand that has historically supported price floors for other assets (e.g., Bitcoin/ETH ETF effects). Regulatory clarity is a structural catalyst: if US legislation narrows SEC authority and allows banks to adopt Ripple services, it could materially expand institutional use and demand — similar to how clearer rules and ETF approvals boosted BTC and ETH price discovery. Short-term impact: mixed — elevated volatility, possible further pullbacks while retail capitulation and whale rotation occur. Medium-to-long-term: bullish under the stated conditions — sustained ETF flows and favorable legislation could restore XRP’s historical BTC-relative valuation and drive price toward the analyst’s targets. Traders should watch ETF flows, on-chain whale behavior, and US regulatory developments as primary triggers; absence of these catalysts or adverse legal outcomes would negate the bullish thesis.