XRP Faces $1.30 Test as Bearish -30% Call Risks a Bear Trap
U.Today reports that XRP is approaching a critical test around the $1.30 support zone. While analysts have highlighted a possible -30% drop—citing patterns such as a triangle break on lower timeframes—volume profile data on the daily XRP/USD chart points to continued accumulation rather than immediate breakdown.
Key levels: the point of control (major volume block) sits around $1.37–$1.45, while XRP is currently near $1.33, slightly below that volume node. The article argues this mismatch can resemble a “false breakdown” designed to shake out liquidity before a reversal.
Momentum: daily RSI shows bullish divergence. XRP printed lower lows in February and March, but RSI formed higher lows, suggesting bearish pressure is fading and a new upward move may be forming.
Traders’ watchpoint: the close of the March daily candle. If XRP can hold above $1.37, the -30% bearish scenario (including price targets around $0.95 referenced by analysts like Ali Martinez) could be invalidated.
Overall, the piece frames XRP as being in the “final stage of a shakeout” where accumulation by larger players may absorb sell pressure, keeping near-term downside risk but increasing the odds of a reversal attempt.
Neutral
The article is effectively a “setup vs. confirmation” story for XRP. On one side, bearish traders cite a potential -30% move and targets near $0.95 (Ali Martinez), mainly from shorter timeframes and chart patterns. On the other side, daily indicators argue against an immediate collapse: volume profile shows the point of control at $1.37–$1.45 while XRP trades slightly below at ~$1.33, a placement that often precedes liquidity hunts and reversals rather than sustained selloffs. The daily RSI bullish divergence (higher RSI lows vs. lower price lows) adds a second confirmation that downside momentum is weakening.
For traders, this typically creates a neutral-to-conditional stance: downside can still be triggered if XRP fails to hold $1.37 near the March close, but the probability of a bear trap rises if the support holds. Historically, similar “false breakdown + divergence” combinations frequently lead to stop-runs followed by rebounds, especially when large traders are accumulating near high-volume nodes.
Short-term impact: heightened volatility and potential stop-loss/liquidity sweeps around $1.30–$1.37. Long-term impact depends on whether XRP can reclaim and hold above the $1.37–$1.45 volume zone; success would strengthen the case for a new bullish cycle, while rejection could re-activate the bearish thesis.