Why XRP Fell ~25% in 2025 Despite Major Regulatory Wins
XRP plunged roughly 25% in 2025 (about 50% from its year-to-date high), wiping more than $50 billion in market value despite a year of major positive developments for Ripple. Key 2025 events included the SEC ending its multi-year lawsuit, approval and launch of several XRP ETFs that attracted over $1.3 billion in inflows, multiple Ripple acquisitions (Hidden Road, Rail, Palisade, GTreasury), a $500 million investment valuing the company at $40 billion, and a US banking license enabling custodial and banking services for RLUSD and institutional products. RLUSD stablecoin grew to over $1.4 billion in assets. The selloff was driven primarily by broad crypto market weakness — Bitcoin and many altcoins declined, with total crypto market cap falling from ~$4.2T to ~$2.8T — and event-driven profit-taking after the U.S. election rally tied to Donald Trump’s win. Technical analysis points to a completed double-top at $3.39 with a neckline near $1.6118, suggesting further downside risk in the near term. Traders should note heavy macro/market correlation, ETF inflows supporting long-term liquidity, and bearish technical structure that may favor short or hedged positions while monitoring ETF flows, Bitcoin direction, and on-chain stablecoin adoption for potential stabilization.
Bearish
The overall assessment is bearish. Despite strong fundamental catalysts for Ripple (SEC settlement, ETF approvals, acquisitions, banking license and stablecoin growth), price fell sharply because the decline was driven by macro and sector-wide weakness: Bitcoin and broad altcoin losses, and profit-taking after a large pre-event rally tied to the U.S. election. Technically, XRP formed a classic double-top at $3.39 with a neckline near $1.6118 — a pattern that typically signals further downward pressure once broken. ETF inflows and institutional developments support medium-to-long-term liquidity and adoption, but they have not yet offset market-wide risk appetite loss. For traders, the near-term bias favors bearish strategies (shorts, put options, inverse products, or hedged positions) until confirmation of support (e.g., sustained ETF inflows, Bitcoin recovery, or reclaiming neckline levels). Historically, similar cases (e.g., assets that rallied into political/regulatory events and then saw post-event sell-the-news moves) often produce rapid pullbacks followed by a longer recovery only when macro sentiment improves and on-chain/fund flows confirm demand. Monitor BTC direction, ETF daily flows, on-chain stablecoin metrics, and volume at key technical levels for signs of stabilization or trend reversal.