29% of XRP Withdrawn From Exchanges as 21Shares U.S. Spot ETF (TOXR) Set to Trade
On the eve of 21Shares’ U.S. spot XRP ETF (ticker: TOXR) beginning trade, on-chain data shows a synchronized, large-scale decline in XRP balances across major exchanges. Total exchange-held XRP fell to 15.86 billion — a drop of 6.5 billion XRP (29%) since February. Major outflows included 6.22 billion from Upbit, 2.56 billion from Binance and 1.77 billion from Bithumb; several other platforms reported roughly 50% declines. Some exchanges reported anomalous inflows or address reclassifications (Coincheck +550M XRP; OKX spike attributed to reclassification). Coinbase, KuCoin, Paribu and SwissBorg showed near-total XRP withdrawals. The ETF will track the CME CF XRP–USD Reference Rate and offers spot exposure without direct custody; it follows recent U.S. XRP ETF launches (Grayscale, Franklin Templeton) that saw strong initial flows (GXRP $67.36M, XRPZ $62.59M on day one). XRP price was $2.19 at press time (+0.75% 24h, +13.6% 7d; market cap ~$132B). Technical levels flagged by analysts: bullish above $2.60 and $3.40, bearish if price closes below the 21 EMA. For traders: monitor exchange balances, ETF inflows/outflows and the key technical levels — large exchange withdrawals can tighten liquidity and amplify price moves around ETF demand events.
Bullish
Large, coordinated withdrawals from exchanges reduce available sell-side liquidity for XRP, which can amplify price moves when demand arrives. The timing coincides with the 21Shares U.S. spot XRP ETF (TOXR) launch and follows prior U.S. ETF debuts that generated strong initial inflows — a pattern that has supported upward price pressure for assets as ETFs channel institutional and retail capital without requiring on-chain custody. Short-term: reduced exchange supply plus early ETF demand can create rapid upward moves and higher volatility; traders should watch ETF flows and orderbook depth for spikes. Medium- to long-term: persistent off-exchange accumulation (self-custody, custodians for ETFs) can structurally tighten circulating supply and support higher price floors, provided ETF adoption and secondary-market demand remain strong. Risks: address reclassifications and exchange-specific anomalies (e.g., OKX, Coincheck) can distort on-chain metrics; rapid withdrawals can also indicate custodial consolidation rather than genuine long-term lock-up, and regulatory or redemption events could reverse flows. Historical parallels: Bitcoin and Ether saw similar exchange balance declines ahead of ETF launches or major custody integrations, which preceded extended bull phases but also episodes of sharp short-term volatility. Overall, the net effect is likely bullish but with elevated risk and volatility around ETF trading and rebalancing moments.