XRP Wallets Underwater: 41% Avg Loss Signals Extreme MVRV Opportunity
On-chain data from Santiment shows XRP active wallets are underwater: the XRP 365-day MVRV is at -41%, the lowest level since the FTX crash in Nov 2022. Santiment reports that wallets active on the XRP Ledger over the past year are down an average of -41% on their investments, marking an “extreme opportunity zone.”
Because crypto is zero-sum, a sharply negative average return may indicate lower-than-usual relative risk for adding positions—traders who already hold are in “blood in the streets” territory.
Traders will likely watch XRP’s 30-day (short-term) and 365-day (long-term) MVRV in the coming days to gauge the next move. At the time of writing, XRP is trading lower amid broader market volatility, having fallen 2.27% in 24 hours and moving in a tight $1.28–$1.36 range since late March.
If history repeats (Dec 2022’s similar MVRV low), the market could be setting up for a rebound. However, a lack of follow-through from bulls keeps the short-to-medium-term outlook cautious.
Neutral
这则新闻对交易的直接信号偏“中性偏谨慎”，因为核心数据是机会型的，但并非明确的趋势反转。Santiment 指出 XRP 的 365 天 MVRV 为 -41%（极端低位），历史上在 2022 年 12 月类似区间出现过上涨（文中提到随后约 4.5 个月上涨 63%）。在交易层面，这通常会提升“低位博反弹/逢低分批”的吸引力，尤其当大量持仓者已出现较大账面亏损时，极端估值可能带来更好的风险回报。
但新闻同时强调 XRP 仍在下跌后的窄幅区间内震荡，且更大的市场波动压制情绪。这意味着短期更可能是“等待确认”（例如 MVRV 在 30 天与 365 天口径上的变化能否同步改善），而不是立刻趋势性上行。
因此，预计短期仍偏震荡甚至受宏观/板块情绪影响向下波动；中长期若 30 天与 365 天 MVRV 从极端负值回升，并伴随价格突破区间上沿，才更可能转为偏多的交易机会。