Analyst: XRP Could Drop to $1.60–$1.70 Near Options Expiry Before Repricing to $3–$5 by 2026
XRP is trading around $1.85, down ~15% in December, but analysts attribute the weakness to derivatives-driven pressure ahead of a large global options expiry included in a $7.1 trillion event. Market analyst Zach Rector warns that leveraged long liquidations tied to the expiry could push XRP briefly to $1.60–$1.70 as a short-term washout to clear leverage. Rector and other observers note ongoing structural demand: five U.S. spot XRP ETFs (Canary Capital, Bitwise, Franklin Templeton, Grayscale, 21Shares) launched in mid-November and have recorded roughly $1.14B net inflows with AUM near $1.25B, absorbing selling pressure while BTC/ETH ETFs saw outflows. Ripple executives highlight XRP’s utility for liquidity and cross-border settlement, and institutional interest — plus potential adoption catalysts such as Japanese bank integrations (e.g., SBI) and FX volatility — could support medium-term revaluation. Social metrics show unusually negative retail chatter, historically a contrarian signal during institutional accumulation. Key signals for traders: (1) watch the global options expiry as a likely short-term volatility catalyst and possible stop-run that could create a buying opportunity; (2) monitor continued ETF inflows as a structural demand indicator; (3) expect potential short-lived shakeouts to $1.60–$1.70 before a medium-term repricing toward analyst targets of $3–$5 by 2026 if institutional flows and adoption persist.
Bullish
Short-term: Bearish/volatile risk. The imminent global options expiry tied to a large derivatives event increases the likelihood of leveraged long liquidations and a stop-run that could suppress XRP toward $1.60–$1.70. That represents a clear short-term downside and heightened volatility risk for traders, especially leveraged positions and tight stops. Medium-to-long-term: Bullish structural signals. Sustained net inflows into multiple U.S. spot XRP ETFs since mid-November (roughly $1.14B) indicate institutional demand that can absorb sell pressure and provide a price floor. Ripple’s emphasis on XRP’s utility for liquidity and potential adoption catalysts (Japanese bank partnerships, FX volatility driving demand for neutral settlement assets) support a narrative for revaluation. Retail social negativity, while pressuring near-term sentiment, has historically coincided with institutional accumulation and local rebounds, making it a contrarian indicator. Net effect: Expect a short-lived bearish washout around the options expiry followed by a recovery if ETF inflows and adoption continue — hence a bullish medium-term outlook for XRP toward analyst targets of $3–$5 by 2026. Traders should size exposure for high short-term volatility, consider using the washout as a tactical entry, and watch ETF flows and on-chain/institutional adoption signals for confirmation.