XRP Tests $2.12 Support; 60% Chance of Breakout Toward $3–$10
XRP tested key support near $2.12 in early January and has since rebounded, becoming the third-largest non-stablecoin by market cap after briefly surpassing BNB. Technical analyst EGRAG CRYPTO describes the move as a “controlled correction”: XRP remains inside a five-day downward channel, but a close above the 21-period EMA and a breakout above the channel top near $2.30 would imply roughly a 60% probability of an upward breakout. Breakout targets cited range from $3.10–$3.30, with optimistic scenarios extending as high as $10 under strong institutional demand. The analyst assigns a 30% chance of continued range-bound action and a 10% chance of a sharp drop toward ~$1 if selling intensifies. On-chain and market data back increased participation — a one-minute global trading spike near $23 million, taker buy/sell ratios on Binance hitting a one-month high, and about $1.2 billion of inflows into newly launched spot XRP ETFs since mid-November 2025 (reportedly absorbing ~1% of circulating supply). Short-term resistance is clustered at $2.17–$2.25, with large four-hour volume candles and sell walls posing obstacles. XRP is up roughly 12% over seven days and about 4% over 30 days. For traders: monitor closes above the 21 EMA and a decisive breakout of the $2.30 channel top for a bullish trade thesis; manage risk around the $2.17–$2.25 resistance band and the $1 downside scenario if momentum fails. This is not investment advice.
Bullish
The combined coverage leans bullish for XRP. Key bullish elements: increased trading volume spikes, elevated taker buy/sell ratios on Binance, and roughly $1.2 billion of reported inflows into new spot XRP ETFs that may have removed ~1% of circulating supply — all supportive of demand and reduced selling pressure. Technical factors give a clear trigger: a close above the 21-period EMA and a breakout above the five-day channel top near $2.30 would validate a bullish continuation toward the $3.10–$3.30 targets (and higher in optimistic institutional scenarios). Short-term resistance at $2.17–$2.25 and on-chain sell walls create friction, so price could stall or range before a decisive move. Downside risk remains (analyst assigns ~10% chance of a fall to ~$1) if momentum fails or profit-taking accelerates. For traders, this implies a directional bias to the upside contingent on clear technical confirmation; without that confirmation, expect neutral to choppy price action and tighter risk management.