XRP ~70 Days Below 50‑Week SMA — Historical Setups Often Preceded Large Rallies
XRP has traded for roughly 66–84 days below its 50‑week simple moving average (50W SMA), a long‑term trend filter traders use to distinguish bearish compression from sustained bullish cycles. Historical precedents show that when XRP remained under the 50W SMA for roughly 50–84 days it often marked cycle lows followed by large rebounds: ~212% after ~70 days in 2018, ~68% after ~49 days in 2021, and an ~857% surge after an 84‑day below‑SMA stretch that led into a mid‑2025 peak near $3.66. Current technicals are mixed. Short‑term moving averages and momentum indicators recently leaned bearish and $2 support was lost, with some analysts noting possible double‑top setups. Offsetting that, weekly RSI is oversold, MACD shows signs of stabilization, and price compression around $1.80–$1.85 suggests selling exhaustion. Pro‑forma projections based on prior runs outline large upside targets (for example, an 857% move from a $1.81 floor to about $17.3 or a 428% move to $9.55 for half that run) but carry no guarantee. Traders should weigh the historical propensity for sizable reversals after extended periods below the 50W SMA against present macro headwinds, regulatory risk and bearish short‑term structure. This is market analysis and not financial advice.
Neutral
The news presents a mixed technical picture with a neutral short‑term bias but notable historical upside potential. Short‑term indicators (loss of $2 support, bearish short‑term moving averages, possible double‑top) increase downside risk and could sustain near‑term weakness or sideways trading. Conversely, weekly indicators (oversold RSI, stabilizing MACD), price compression near $1.80–$1.85, and a documented historical pattern of large rebounds after ~50–84 days below the 50W SMA suggest conditions that have previously preceded strong recoveries. Because the story juxtaposes strong historical bullish outcomes with present bearish technicals and macro/regulatory uncertainty, the overall expected immediate price impact is neutral: traders should expect elevated volatility and a higher probability of rangebound action or snapbacks rather than a clear, guaranteed directional move. Risk‑sensitive traders may position for a mean‑reversion play using tight risk controls, while longer‑term traders could view the setup as a potential accumulation window if broader fundamentals remain intact. All scenarios hinge on confirmation from price action (breaks above weekly resistance or failure to hold $1.80) and are not guaranteed.