XRP ETF Approval Odds Surge to 87% as Price Eyes $5 Breakout

Published: 2025-09-03 15:23:41 |

XRP is trading in a bull flag on the daily chart after rebounding from $2.80. Technical analysis shows key support at the 100-day SMA ($2.68) and 200-day SMA ($2.48). A close above the 50-day SMA at $3.08 would confirm the breakout and target $5. XRP ETF approval odds have jumped to 87% on Polymarket as the SEC reviews 11 applications. The SEC must decide by late October, with Franklin Templeton due by November 14. Increased XRP ETF approval expectations could attract up to $5 billion in institutional inflows. Traders will watch whether XRP holds above $2.75 to maintain the bull flag structure. Sustained ETF approval momentum may fuel further upside and validate the technical setup.

Bullish

The combination of a clear technical setup—a bull flag on the daily chart—and an 87% chance of XRP ETF approval supports a bullish outlook. In the short term, holding above key support levels and a close above the 50-day SMA could trigger a breakout toward $5. Over the long term, ETF approval may draw significant institutional capital, enhancing liquidity and reinforcing upward momentum.