XRP ETFs Draw $1.16B as Standard Chartered Sees $8 Upside amid Whale Selling
U.S. spot XRP ETFs have accumulated roughly $1.16 billion in net inflows since their mid‑November 2025 launch, raising assets under management to about $1.27 billion and recording no outflows in 2025. The sustained institutional demand provides a structural bullish catalyst for XRP even while the token traded below $2 in December. Standard Chartered’s digital assets team issued a bullish $8 price target (roughly 4.4x from ~$1.87), citing ETF adoption, improving U.S. regulatory clarity and XRP’s payments utility. However, realized‑cap analysis indicates a materially larger capital requirement for such a move: Glassnode’s realized‑cap based estimate implies roughly $18.6–19 billion of net new realized capital would be needed to reach $8 — far exceeding current ETF inflows. On‑chain data from CryptoQuant also shows that large XRP holders (whales) were net sellers in recent months, which has weighed on near‑term price action and could limit upside. Key takeaways for traders: growing XRP ETF inflows are a meaningful structural positive and should be monitored as a momentum signal, but ETF capital alone appears insufficient to deliver an $8 outcome; watch realized cap changes, continued ETF flows, whale net flows, and U.S. regulatory developments for triggers of stronger rallies or renewed downside. Manage risk near-term given ongoing whale selling and muted sentiment; longer‑term upside depends on sustained institutional demand and broader market liquidity.
Neutral
The news carries mixed signals that together point to a neutral price impact on XRP. Positive factors: steady institutional demand via U.S. spot XRP ETFs (about $1.16B net since launch) is a structural bullish catalyst and reduces reliance on retail-only flows. Standard Chartered’s $8 target adds a notable upside narrative for investors and traders. Negative/limiting factors: realized‑cap estimates imply an order of magnitude more capital (~$18.6–19B) would be required for a 4.4x move to $8, meaning current ETF inflows are insufficient by themselves. On‑chain indicators show whales were net sellers recently, which historically suppresses short‑term rallies and can intensify volatility on downside moves. For short‑term trading: expect limited upside and elevated risk until whale selling abates or ETF flows accelerate materially; trade signals include changes in ETF inflow pace, realized‑cap increases, and reduced large‑holder outflows. For medium/long term: a sustained, growing institutional bid could be genuinely bullish, but it must be large and persistent enough to shift realized cap and broader market liquidity. Overall, the balance of a clear structural tailwind versus large-capacity and supply-side constraints results in a neutral classification for XRP’s near‑term price impact.