On-Chain Metrics Signal XRP Sell-Off Risk and Potential 35% Drop
On-chain metrics and technical indicators point to a significant sell-off risk for XRP, potentially driving a 35% correction to the $1.35–$1.60 range. Early investors who bought below $0.50 are realizing profits at over $68 million per day, echoing the 2017 market peak. More than 70% of XRP’s realized market cap formed since late 2024, creating a top-heavy distribution that historically precedes sharp pullbacks. The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) for coins held 3–6 months has fallen toward breakeven, while 6–12 month holders still face an average loss cushion, with a $1.35 cost basis against the current $2.14 price. A descending triangle pattern on the weekly chart reinforces a bearish outlook. However, a rebound off the 50-week EMA could invalidate this scenario and trigger renewed upside. Traders should monitor on-chain metrics, SOPR levels, key technical supports, and patterns to manage risk and position for either a deeper retracement or a potential rebound.
Bearish
Early investor profit-taking at over $68 million per day, combined with a top-heavy realized market cap and declining SOPR for 3–6-month holders, points to a likely bearish correction of up to 35%. The descending triangle pattern on the weekly chart and key support levels around $1.35–$1.60 reinforce downside risk. While a rebound off the 50-week EMA could invalidate the bearish outlook, current on-chain and technical signals favor a deeper retracement in the short term. Long-term traders should watch SOPR levels, distribution by new holders, and the 50-week EMA for signs of renewed bullish momentum.