XRP Faces 45% Downside Risk Amid Bearish Fractal
XRP’s legal win over the SEC removed a major hurdle and drove daily trading volume up 208% to $12.4 billion. However, price action cooled as XRP fell 4% to $3.13, despite a $3.32 intraday high. Heavy selling at the 19:00 hour saw 73.9 million XRP dumped, indicating profit-taking. On the two-week chart, a bearish RSI divergence—higher highs in price but lower highs in RSI—echoes the 2017–18 peak pattern that led to a 45% decline. If repeated, XRP could slide toward the 50-period EMA near $1.64, with interim support at $1.90–$2.00. While this correction may shake out overleveraged traders, bulls point to a breakout above $3.55, the top of the 2018 rally and a multi-year symmetrical triangle. Clearing $3.55 could pave the way to $4.41 and $5.68, especially if a spot XRP ETF is approved. Ripple’s long-term projects, including CBDC partnerships and asset tokenization, underpin fundamentals, but macro uncertainty and whale selling remain risks. XRP stands at a crossroads between a steep pullback and a sustained post-SEC rally.
Bearish
Immediate indicators point to a bearish outlook. The two-week RSI divergence and higher highs in price suggest weakening momentum, mirroring the 2017–18 pre-crash pattern that preceded a 45% drop. Heavy profit-taking around the $3.30 level and firm resistance at $3.27–$3.32 further reinforce downside risk. If XRP revisits the 50-period EMA near $1.64, short-term traders may incur losses, prompting forced liquidations and resetting market sentiment. Though long-term fundamentals remain supportive—driven by potential spot ETF approval and Ripple’s infrastructure initiatives—the technical setup and historical precedent argue for a corrective phase. Therefore, traders should prepare for increased volatility and a possible pullback before considering new long entries.