XRP Bearish Structure Persists: Bulls Need $1.65 Break to Flip
XRP remains inside a broader bearish wave structure, trading around $1.42 on Mar. 25, 2026, with no major catalyst in sight. An analyst (CasiTrades) says the current wave 2 setup is intact unless XRP prints a new low below $1.36. Wave targets point to a downside push toward $1.09 and then $0.87. A key invalidation/flip level for XRP is a break and hold above $1.65.
On the institutional side, XRP spot ETFs reportedly recorded $30.12M in net outflows in March 2026, according to SoSoValue—cooling after early-month inflows. Meanwhile, Ripple CTO David Schwartz said he opposes artificially incentivizing XRP usage; any discounts or subsidies should reflect real efficiencies or genuine benefits rather than promotion-driven subsidies.
Traders may treat this as a “wait-for-levels” setup: bearish momentum favors sells/hedges into support zones, while upside traders need a convincing reclaim above $1.65 to challenge the bearish structure.
Bearish
该消息对交易的核心影响偏空：技术面上，文章给出的 XRP 结构与目标指向更深的回撤区（1.09、0.87），同时只有在 XRP 突破并站稳 1.65 后才可能“翻转”熊市情景；并且波浪失效条件明确为跌破 1.36 新低。资金面也形成背离风险——3 月 XRP 现货 ETF 录得约 3012 万美元净流出，意味着机构端需求未能持续支撑价格。长期维度上，Ripple CTO 的表态强调避免“为推广而补贴”，这可能降低短期被动资金/投放驱动的想象空间，更符合“真实效率才会带动采用”的节奏。
历史上，类似“技术结构看空 + ETF/机构资金走弱”的组合，通常会让市场在短期更倾向于按支撑位进行交易（先试探、再反应），除非出现明确的趋势破位或资金重新转正。短期更可能围绕 1.36、1.09 进行波动；中长期若机构流出持续，反弹高度可能受限，直到出现重新站稳 1.65 及后续资金面改善的共振。