XRP May Drop ~50% vs. Bitcoin After Bearish Monthly Close

Published: 2026-03-01 18:06:28 |

XRP finished February poorly against both USD and BTC. The token lost over 16% versus the U.S. dollar and, more critically for traders, closed below the 20-month moving average (the middle Bollinger Band) versus Bitcoin on the monthly chart. Falling under that midline signals a bearish trend; the lower Bollinger Band for the XRP/BTC pair sits around 0.00009775 BTC per XRP, roughly 52.9% below the current ratio. By contrast, in January 2025 XRP/BTC had surged above the upper monthly Bollinger Band to 0.00003419 BTC after a 380% rally, but has since fallen about 40% from that peak. Until XRP/BTC posts a confident monthly close above the middle band, the probability of XRP outperforming Bitcoin remains limited. Key trade-relevant facts: monthly Bollinger Bands used as trend filter; midline = 20-month MA; downside benchmark ≈0.00009775 BTC (≈-53%); XRP USD decline ≈16% in February. Traders should treat the signal as a bearish warning for relative strength versus BTC and consider risk management for positions that rely on XRP outperforming Bitcoin.

Bearish

The bearish classification is driven by the monthly close of XRP/BTC below the 20-month moving average — the Bollinger Band midline — which is commonly used by traders as a long-term trend filter. Historically, falling under the midline shifts focus to the lower band as the primary target; here that lower band implies about a 50–53% downside from current levels. The article also notes a significant prior peak (Jan 2025) followed by a ~40% retracement, reinforcing that the pair has already lost a substantial relative gain. Short-term impact: increased selling pressure on XRP relative to BTC, higher volatility, and reduced odds of XRP-led altseason until a confirmed monthly reclaim of the midline. Traders may reduce long XRP/BTC exposure, tighten stops, or hedge with BTC. Long-term impact: if XRP fails to reclaim the midline over several months, market structure could entrench a multi-month underperformance vs. BTC, prompting portfolio realignment towards Bitcoin or more resilient altcoins. This mirrors past episodes where monthly Bollinger Band midline breaks preceded extended relative weakness (e.g., various altcoins after 2018–2019 BTC dominance rotations).