XRP Capitulation: Holders Realize Large Losses as Panic Selling Pushes SOPR Below 1
XRP has seen sustained selling since August 2025, with on-chain metrics indicating capitulation as holders realize major losses. Glassnode data shows the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) fell from 1.16 (25 July 2025) to 0.96, mirroring patterns from Sept 2021–May 2022 when SOPR <1 preceded prolonged consolidation. From mid-July to late October XRP fell ~27% (from $3.50 to $2.40). Long-term holders who accumulated before Nov 2024 increased spending 580% — from $38M/day to $260M/day — signaling distribution into weakness rather than profit-taking during rallies. By mid-November only 58.5% of supply was in profit, the lowest since Nov 2024, and repeated retests of the $2 zone resulted in weekly realized losses of $500M–$1.2B. At the time of reporting XRP traded near $1.40, below aggregate holder cost basis, prompting panic selling. Analysts view the move as capitulation rather than structural failure, citing stronger fundamentals and improved regulatory clarity compared with 2022. Key implications for traders: heightened downside risk around the $2 support zone, elevated on-chain selling pressure, and potential for an extended consolidation phase if capitulation completes.
Bearish
The news signals prominent bearish pressure for XRP. Key on-chain indicators — notably SOPR falling below 1 — show that holders are selling at a loss, a classic capitulation pattern that increases immediate downside risk. Large increases in spending by long-term holders (580% jump to $260M/day) and repeated weekly realized losses of $500M–$1.2B around the $2 zone point to distribution into weakness rather than profit-taking. Historically, SOPR <1 has preceded extended consolidation (Sept 2021–May 2022) rather than immediate recovery, which implies limited short-term upside and a heightened likelihood of range-bound or lower prices until selling pressure abates. However, analysts argue fundamentals and regulatory clarity are stronger than in 2022, which supports the view this is capitulation (short-term bearish) rather than structural failure (long-term catastrophic). For traders this means: tighten risk management, watch $2 as a key psychological and technical level, monitor SOPR and realized-loss metrics for capitulation completion, and consider size-restricted entries or wait for volume-backed recovery signals before adding exposure.