XRP Double-Bottom and Eased Whale Outflows Point to ~20% Upside If Breaks $1.50
XRP appears to be forming a double-bottom after holding the $1.30–$1.35 support twice in February. A confirmed breakout above the ~$1.50 neckline would target $1.68–$1.70 — roughly a 20% upside from current levels. On-chain metrics show whale net outflows have sharply narrowed: the 90-day moving average of whale net flow improved from about -33.5M XRP in December to roughly -3.29M XRP, indicating a major reduction in selling pressure. Addresses holding ≥1,000 XRP have increased, suggesting re-accumulation or paused selling by large holders. Historical precedent (April 2025) saw a similar reduction in whale selling precede a >50% XRP rally. Key technical resistance is the 50-day exponential moving average (50-day EMA); failure to clear and hold this level could produce a bearish continuation pattern with downside toward ~$1.00 (~30% drop). Macro risks — including AI-driven risk-off flows and geopolitical tensions — could remove liquidity from high-beta assets and prevent a sustained breakout. Traders should watch the $1.50 neckline and the 50-day EMA for confirmation. Risk management: use clear stop levels below the $1.30–$1.35 support and size positions to account for a potential ~30% downside if the pattern fails. Not investment advice.
Bullish
The combined reports point to a bullish setup for XRP conditioned on technical confirmation. Price structure shows a possible double-bottom with a clear neckline at ~$1.50; a successful breakout targets roughly $1.68–$1.70 (~20% upside). On-chain data materially reduces a major bearish input — whale net outflows have narrowed significantly and large-wallet balances (≥1,000 XRP) are increasing, consistent with reduced distribution or re-accumulation. Historical precedent where similar whale-flow improvements preceded a >50% rally supports the upside thesis. Short-term bullish catalysts: a decisive breakout and hold above the $1.50 neckline and clearing the 50-day EMA, which would likely attract momentum buyers. Key downside scenarios that could nullify the bullish view include failure to clear the 50-day EMA (leading to a bearish continuation toward ~$1.00, ~30% downside) and macro-driven liquidity withdrawals (AI risk-off, geopolitical shocks). For traders, the immediate implication is an asymmetric trade: defined upside (~20%) if confirmed vs. a larger but quantifiable downside if invalidated. Therefore, the net expected price impact on XRP is bullish, provided technical confirmation and stable macro conditions.