XRP Faces Downside Risk After Weekly Double-Top and Dragonfly Doji Form
XRP (XRP) dropped to $2.05, about 15% below its 2026 peak, as technicals and flows point to further downside. Weekly charts show a large double-top at $3.4045 with a neckline at $1.6140 and a dragonfly doji — both bearish signals. XRP has slipped below the 50-week and 100-week EMAs and the Supertrend, reinforcing a bearish bias. On-chain and market-flow indicators also weakened: spot XRP ETF inflows fell to $107m in January from $500m in December and $666m in November, while futures open interest declined from $4.5bn on Jan 6 to $3.9bn. Political and regulatory noise — notably the Senate Banking Committee withdrawing the Market Structure Bill after Coinbase objections, and Ripple’s CEO Brad Garlinghouse urging regulatory clarity — added to market uncertainty. Near-term targets: first support at the December low $1.7712; a break below that increases odds of a move toward the double-top neckline near $1.6140 (about 22% below current). Traders should note weakening momentum, falling ETF demand and lower futures OI as catalysts for increased volatility and selling pressure.
Bearish
Multiple technical indicators and market flow metrics point to downside risk for XRP. The weekly double-top with a defined neckline is a classic reversal pattern; confirmation would be a break below the December low ($1.7712) and then the neckline at $1.6140. The dragonfly doji on the weekly chart alongside price moving below the 50- and 100-week EMAs and the Supertrend increases the probability of continued selling. On the demand side, spot ETF inflows have materially slowed month-on-month and futures open interest has declined, indicating waning speculative and institutional participation. Regulatory uncertainty — the Market Structure Bill withdrawal and ongoing calls for clarity from Ripple — adds a sentiment headwind that can exacerbate downside moves. Short term: expect increased volatility and potential retests of $1.77 and $1.61 supports; traders may prefer short/bearish strategies or protect positions with stops and hedges. Long term: if broader crypto macro conditions improve (renewed ETF demand, higher OI, regulatory clarity), XRP could recover; otherwise a sustained break below the neckline would justify a lower trading range and a bearish medium-term outlook. Similar past events: other assets that formed weekly double-tops with declining OI (e.g., altcoin corrections during 2021–2022) saw multi-week drawdowns before recovery when flows and macro sentiment returned.