XRP ETF Approval Odds Rise to 91% as Charts Signal Breakout
Ripple secured regulatory clarity after its SEC lawsuit ended with a 2023 ruling that XRP sold on exchanges is not a security. With appeals dropped in August 2025, institutions can explore XRP more confidently. Prediction market Polymarket now shows a 91% probability of XRP ETF approval by year-end, driven by SEC-CFTC guidance on spot crypto ETFs. A spot XRP ETF could channel billions of institutional dollars, mirroring Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF inflows. Legislative momentum is rising as Senator Lummis’s Clarity Act may define digital assets under securities or commodity law. However, SWIFT has questioned XRP’s readiness for global banking settlements, highlighting the need for scale and compliance. Emerging rivals like Remittix aim to capture cross-border remittance market share. On the charts, XRP/USD formed a bullish flag, pointing to an 80% upside toward $5. RSI and MACD indicate neutral momentum poised for a breakout. Traders should watch for a decisive flag breakout above $3.20 to validate the bullish setup.
Bullish
News is bullish. A 91% probability of XRP ETF approval indicates waning regulatory risk after the SEC lawsuit. Historically, Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF approvals spurred major institutional inflows and price rallies. A spot XRP ETF could channel similar capital, underpinning long-term adoption. The proposed Clarity Act further advances legal framework, strengthening investor confidence. On-chain technicals align, with a bullish flag breakout above $3.20 likely to trigger short-term momentum, as RSI and MACD shift upward. Although SWIFT’s reservations and emerging rivals pose challenges, combined regulatory clarity and bullish chart patterns create favorable conditions for sustained XRP price gains.