XRP Nears $3 on 95% ETF Approval Odds, Eyes $3.6
Bloomberg has assigned XRP ETF approval odds at 95%, with the SEC expected to decide by October. XRP price recently approached $3 on the news, though it has remained flat since August while the broader altcoin market rallied 14%. Open interest in XRP futures rose 5% to 2.69 billion tokens ($7.9 billion), and CME-listed futures jumped 74% to 386 million XRP, signaling growing institutional engagement.
Despite this momentum, XRPL adoption remains weak. Ripple’s RLUSD stablecoin supply topped $700 million on Ethereum, yet XRPL accounts for just 2% of tokenized real-world assets and holds under $100 million in total value locked (TVL). The 7% monthly futures premium points to balanced leverage amid neutral market sentiment.
Traders eye a potential surge to $3.60 if the XRP ETF is approved. However, low on-chain activity and limited TVL suggest caution on sustained gains, making XRP’s long-term rally uncertain.
Bullish
The 95% odds of XRP ETF approval and the SEC’s imminent October decision have driven a notable price reaction toward $3, supported by increased open interest in futures and a 74% rise in CME contracts. This institutional engagement suggests a bullish short-term outlook, as traders position for a potential ETF-driven rally toward $3.60. In the long term, weak on-chain adoption—just 2% of tokenized real-world assets—and low TVL under $100 million may cap upward momentum, but the near-term catalyst of an approved XRP ETF remains a strong positive driver for price.