ETF Inflows Could Trigger XRP Supply Shock Within 30–90 Days
New US spot XRP ETFs have drawn heavy institutional demand since launch, removing substantial XRP from exchange circulation and creating growing liquidity pressure. Researcher Ripple Bull Winkle highlighted $622 million in ETF inflows over 13 days (≈$47.8m/day). Projecting that pace yields roughly $1.44bn in 30 days, $2.87bn in 60 days and $4.31bn in 90 days. Spot ETF issuers buy and custody XRP to mint shares, lowering exchange-listed balances; on-chain trackers show falling exchange reserves since ETF trading began. Continued sustained inflows could thin order books, make market-makers struggle to source XRP, and make even moderate buy orders trigger sharp price moves. Key metrics to monitor: daily ETF inflows, exchange reserves, issuer/authorized participant activity and regulatory developments. Traders should treat the ETF-driven liquidity drain as a primary market signal; this is informative, not financial advice.
Bullish
Sustained, large-scale spot ETF purchases remove XRP from exchange inventories, directly tightening circulating supply. Historical parallels include BTC and ETH spot ETF inflows, which reduced exchange balances and correlated with stronger upside price pressure as liquidity thinned. With $622m in 13 days (~$47.8m/day), continued ETF demand could make order books shallower and increase price sensitivity to buy orders — a structural bullish factor because supply-side constraints amplify buying pressure. Short-term, expect higher volatility and the potential for sharp rallies on sustained inflows or positive catalysts. Market-makers may widen spreads and reduce depth, temporarily raising execution risk. Long-term, persistent institutional accumulation can support higher price floors and reduce available supply for retail trading. Risks: rapid profit-taking, regulatory shifts, or ETF redemptions could reverse flows and trigger corrections. Traders should monitor ETF inflow rates, exchange reserves, authorized participant activity, on-chain withdrawal patterns and trading depth to gauge when supply stress is materializing.