XRP ETF Outflows Threaten $1 Break as Support Tests
XRP faces renewed downside risk after a shift in flows from spot XRP ETFs. The article says outflows in the past two days exceeded inflows, the first back-to-back outflow streak since March.
Despite strong cumulative net inflows of nearly $1.5B since the first US spot XRP ETF launch (Canary Capital in November), this recent change suggests some conservative investors may be trimming exposure. That dynamic can increase sell pressure and weigh on the XRP price.
Price action is also key. XRP is trading around $1.11, but traders are watching a potential loss of the psychological $1 area. X user Diana highlighted a bearish scenario if XRP fails to reclaim/hold about $1.08 again, with a possible move toward $0.87. She also noted that staying above this zone could support a bounce toward $1.30.
On-chain/market factors offer partial support. CryptoQuant data cited in the article shows XRP exchange reserves on Binance have dropped to a four-month low, which can reduce immediate selling pressure.
Technicals are mixed but constructive: analyst Ali Martinez said the monthly Tom DeMark (TD) Sequential indicator has flashed a buy signal on XRP (along with BTC, ETH, and SOL). He argues that concurrent monthly buy signals across assets often reflect seller exhaustion and can align with longer-term market bottoms.
Overall, XRP remains range-bound with a clear $1 inflection point, driven by spot ETF flows, Binance reserve trends, and monthly TD signals.
Neutral
The near-term signal is mixed. On the bearish side, spot XRP ETF flow turned negative again (two consecutive days of outflows), which historically can translate into extra selling pressure on the underlying XRP. The article also frames $1 as the key psychological level, with a downside scenario mentioned toward $0.87 if XRP loses the ~$1.08 area.
However, the setup is not purely bearish. Binance XRP reserves dropping to a four-month low suggests fewer immediate sell orders from exchanges. In addition, the monthly TD Sequential buy signal for XRP (and other majors like BTC/ETH/SOL) points to possible seller exhaustion—often a precursor to stabilization after prolonged declines.
Compared with past ETF-driven momentum episodes in crypto, flow reversals tend to matter most in the short term, affecting volatility around obvious levels (like $1 for XRP). Over the longer term, the monthly technical buy signal and exchange reserve cooling could help XRP form a base, but traders should still treat the ETF outflow streak as a risk catalyst until flows stabilize and XRP regains/holds the $1.08–$1.11 area.