XRP Exchange Supply Plunges Below Price Curve After 1.35B Exit — Breakout Risk Near $2.05
XRP exchange balances plunged in 2025 as roughly 1.35 billion XRP (about 45% of visible exchange liquidity) moved off exchanges over a three-week span, according to Glassnode-linked analysis. The outflows coincided with XRP’s price falling from roughly $3.40 to the $2.00–$2.10 range. Analysts (Diana, Ali Martinez) interpret the move as large buyers and institutions shifting tokens into OTC desks, custody platforms and private settlement channels rather than selling on-exchange, marking the first time the tracked exchange-supply line fell below XRP’s price curve. Reduced on-exchange liquidity has tightened order-book depth and compressed price action into a symmetrical triangle on the 4‑hour chart, with resistance near $2.32 (or $2.12–$2.15 in earlier reads) and support around $1.88–$2.00; current price sits around $2.05. Traders should note higher odds of a fast, amplified breakout in either direction because smaller buy or sell orders can move price more when visible supply is lower. Estimated move size on a breakout is roughly ~16%, depending on volume. Key SEO keywords: XRP, exchange supply, on-chain flows, liquidity, technical analysis.
Neutral
The combined reports point to materially lower on-exchange XRP supply driven by large withdrawals into custody and OTC channels, which is a mixed signal for price direction. Reduced visible liquidity typically raises the probability of sharp, fast moves because order-book depth is thinner — a structural condition that can be bullish if demand returns or bearish if selling pressure resumes. The articles note institutional accumulation as the likely driver, which supports a medium-to-long-term bullish case by reducing circulating sell-side inventory. However, price has already declined from earlier highs and is trading inside a compressing symmetrical triangle, so near-term direction depends on breakout momentum and volume. Practically for traders: expect higher volatility and lower liquidity sensitivity — tighten risk controls, use limit orders or reduced position sizes, and watch breakout thresholds (support ~1.88–2.00; resistance ~2.12–2.32). A confirmed breakout with volume could produce a rapid ~16% move; a failure or breakdown could accelerate downside. Therefore, market impact is ambiguous in the short term (neutral) but with asymmetric risk toward sharp directional moves when liquidity is tested.