XRP Exchange Balances Drop 45% in 60 Days — What Traders Should Know
On-chain data from Glassnode, highlighted by analyst Xaif Crypto, shows XRP balances held on centralized exchanges fell from about 3.95 billion XRP on 21 September to roughly 2.6 billion XRP on 27 November — a decline of more than 45% over 60 days. The drop indicates a substantial withdrawal of tokens from exchange custody, reducing immediately available sell-side liquidity. Analysts link the outflows to accumulation by large holders and rising institutional interest following the launch of spot-based investment vehicles. While lower exchange reserves can reduce near-term sell pressure and make order books more sensitive to new demand, Glassnode’s exchange-cluster metric has known limitations: on-chain clustering can misclassify addresses and operational transfers between hot and cold wallets or exchange-managed movements may skew short-term readings. Traders should watch upcoming exchange balance reports, trading volumes and order-book depth to see if the contraction persists. This shift is noteworthy for liquidity-sensitive strategies — it may increase volatility on large orders and amplify price moves if demand rises, but it does not guarantee a specific directional outcome.
Bullish
A >45% decline in XRP held on centralized exchanges reduces immediately available sell-side liquidity. Historically, large withdrawals from exchanges — when driven by accumulation rather than custodial reshuffling — have removed selling pressure and can support higher prices or sharper short-term rallies if demand increases. The correlation is not deterministic: operational transfers between hot and cold wallets or exchange movements can mimic outflows, and reduced exchange balances can also precede sudden sell events by large holders if they choose to liquidate off-exchange. For traders: short-term impact is likely increased sensitivity and potential volatility around large orders and lower market depth. Intraday and swing traders should tighten risk controls and monitor order-book depth and volume; momentum traders may see stronger moves on positive demand. Long-term impact depends on whether outflows reflect sustained accumulation and growing institutional adoption (which would be bullish) or temporary operational transfers (neutral). Given the magnitude and reports of institutional interest tied to spot products, the immediate market-significance skews bullish but requires confirmation from continued balance declines and supportive volume.