Rising XRP Exchange Inflows and ETF Interest Risk Prolonging 50% Downtrend
XRP has dropped roughly 50% from about $3.66 to near $1.85 and repeatedly failed to reclaim $1.90–$1.91 resistance. CryptoQuant data show a clear rise in daily XRP inflows to centralized exchanges since Dec 15, led by Binance (daily inflows 35M–116M XRP, peaking Dec 19). Analysts interpret the elevated inflows as rising selling intent — a mix of long-term holders taking profits and newer buyers capitulating — which increases near-term downside risk and can prevent accumulation. At the same time, US spot XRP ETFs have attracted notable institutional demand since launch (around $1.14B inflows and ~$1.25B AUM as of Dec 26), outperforming some BTC/ETH funds, but ETF demand so far has not offset the surge in on-chain exchange transfers. Broader liquidity signals weaken the bullish picture: stablecoin market-cap growth has stalled and average monthly exchange inflows across crypto have fallen (~$136B to ~$70B since September), reducing fresh fiat-to-crypto demand. Traders should watch exchange inflows (especially to Binance), spot ETF flows, and price action around $1.90–$1.91 — persistent high inflows or renewed selling could deepen or extend the correction; conversely, sustained ETF-driven demand or a sharp drop in exchange transfers would be required to stabilise prices.
Bearish
The combined evidence points to a bearish outlook for XRP. Elevated daily inflows to centralized exchanges — particularly large transfers to Binance — historically signal increased selling pressure; CryptoQuant’s data showing spikes in inflows (35M–116M XRP/day) during the drawdown supports this. Long-term holders taking profits plus newer holders capitulating increases supply on exchanges, making it harder for buyers (including spot ETF demand) to absorb sales. Although US spot XRP ETFs have attracted meaningful institutional capital (~$1.14B inflows, ~$1.25B AUM), that demand has not matched the pace or scale of on-chain exchange transfers. Broader liquidity indicators (stalled stablecoin market cap growth and a roughly 50% drop in average monthly exchange inflows since September) reduce fresh fiat-to-crypto buying power, limiting a fast rebound. In the short term, continued high exchange inflows and failed retests of $1.90–$1.91 likely prolong downside momentum. In the medium-to-long term, sustained ETF inflows or a structural drop in exchange transfers would be required to reverse the trend; absent those, price pressure may persist and the correction could deepen.