XRP Exchange Supply Hits 8-Year Low but Price Stalls Below $2
XRP balances held on crypto exchanges have plunged to an eight-year low — about 1.6 million XRP according to Glassnode — down roughly 57% from 3.76 billion on October 8, 2025. Lower exchange supply is typically bullish because coins moved to private wallets are less available for immediate sale, raising the potential for a supply squeeze. Despite this decline, XRP’s market price remains stuck around $1.8 and failed to sustain earlier 2025 highs above $3. Analysts cite weak buyer demand, repeated breakout rejections, persistent selling pressure, and negative investor sentiment as reasons for the muted price response. On-chain metrics show over half of circulating XRP is underwater, increasing the risk of panic selling. Broader market weakness among major tokens (BTC, ETH, DOGE, SOL) is also weighing on XRP. For traders: the asset shows tightening supply but lacks confirmation from demand-driven price action; short-term volatility and downside risk remain elevated until clearer buying volume or macro market improvement surfaces.
Neutral
The news shows a clear supply-side bullish signal — exchange balances at multi-year lows, which can reduce immediate sell pressure and enable future supply squeezes. However, this is counterbalanced by weak demand indicators: price remains below key resistance (~$2), repeated breakout failures, high portion of holders in loss, and broader crypto market weakness. Historically, reduced exchange supply has preceded rallies when accompanied by rising buy volume or positive macro catalysts (for example, Bitcoin movements following exchange outflows in prior bull phases). Absent confirming demand or macro tailwinds, low exchange supply alone hasn’t triggered sustained rallies (as seen with other altcoins that experienced hoarding yet stayed rangebound). Therefore the immediate impact is neutral: potential bullish longer-term if buyer participation picks up, but short-term risks remain bearish until volume and sentiment improve. Traders should watch: exchange outflow continuation, on-chain accumulation by known wallets, volume at $1.8–$2.2 resistance, and broader crypto market trend for confirmation before committing to directional trades.