XRP Rally on Hold: Glassnode Sees Fee Collapse and Loss Overhang

Published: 2026-06-09 16:30:02 |

Glassnode’s June 2026 on-chain review suggests XRP holders should not expect a near-term rally. The key issue is a sharp decoupling between XRP price pressure and network fundamentals. Glassnode points to the realized profit/loss indicator (90D-SMA) falling to 0.38. This implies that for every $1 of realized losses, only $0.38 of realized profits are present—signaling a market dominated by loss-taking. The share of “underwater” supply is also elevated: about 41.5% of circulating XRP (≈26.5B coins) is underwater, while profitable addresses have contracted to 58.5%. At the same time, fee activity is collapsing. Average daily fee volume (90D-SMA) has dropped from ~5,900 XRP (February 2025) to ~500 XRP today. Glassnode interprets this not as a technical fee optimization, but as evidence of user exodus after the 2025 speculative boom. Traders face a two-sided squeeze. On the upside, weak or “emptying” network activity removes the fuel needed for rebounds. On the downside, XRP appears pressured by an overhang of loss-making positions ready to sell into any bounce. Overall, the data argues against a quick trend reversal and highlights heightened risk of continued downside or choppy, weak rallies for XRP in the near term.

Bearish

Bearish. The article’s main takeaway is worsening XRP on-chain conditions: realized profit/loss (90D-SMA) collapsing to 0.38, a large underwater share (~41.5%), and a major drop in fee volume (90D-SMA) from ~5,900 XRP to ~500 XRP. For traders, this combination often precedes extended weak price action because it implies (1) loss-heavy positioning that can sell into rallies, and (2) reduced user activity that removes upward “demand fuel.” In similar past cycles across liquid L1/L2 assets, fee/usage deterioration plus loss dominance tends to lead to either prolonged consolidation below resistance or renewed drawdowns, until either network activity recovers or the remaining sellers are exhausted. Short-term, rallies may struggle because the overhang can trigger profit-taking at the first bounce. Long-term, a durable reversal would likely require a clear re-acceleration in on-chain activity (fees/transactions) and improving realized P/L, neither of which is indicated by the current data.