XRP Ledger Fees Collapse ~90% as Futures Open Interest Plummets — Price Tests $2 Support
XRP Ledger transaction fees have collapsed roughly 89–90% year-to-date, falling from ~5,900 XRP/day in early February to about ~650 XRP/day — levels last seen in December 2020 (Glassnode). The decline in on‑chain fees coincides with a sharp reduction in XRP futures open interest (down ~59%, from 1.75B XRP in October to 0.74B XRP) and a drop in funding rates (7‑day SMA from ~0.01% to ~0.001%), signalling reduced derivatives trader confidence. Social sentiment has shifted into the "fear" zone, the weakest since October. Despite ongoing inflows into XRP ETFs, these on‑chain and derivatives metrics point to lower leverage, reduced on‑chain activity, and thinner liquidity. Technically, XRP is trading under pressure after a 25 bps Fed cut and is testing key support near $2.00 (current price ~ $1.99). Momentum indicators (compressed RSI, oversold Stochastic RSI) and a descending‑triangle pattern suggest downside risk: a breakdown below $2.00 targets roughly $1.73 with further support near $1.61, while constructive dips to $1.90 could attract buyers per some analysts. For traders: collapsing fees imply lower on‑chain user activity and fee revenue; falling open interest and funding rates show waning leverage and potential for diminished volatility or liquidity‑driven sell pressure. Monitor $2.00 and $1.90 supports, futures open interest, funding rates, ETF flows and on‑chain activity to gauge short‑term bias; longer‑term outlook hinges on renewed on‑chain engagement, ETF performance and broader liquidity conditions.
Bearish
The combined on‑chain and derivatives data point to a bearish near‑term outlook for XRP. An ~90% collapse in ledger fees signals materially lower on‑chain activity and user demand, which reduces transaction‑driven fundamentals. A ~59% fall in futures open interest and sharply weaker funding rates indicate that leverage has been removed from the market, lowering the probability of sustained upside rallies driven by long leveraged positions and reducing liquidity that can absorb selling. Social sentiment in the "fear" zone further increases the risk of downside as traders are more likely to sell into weakness. Technically, XRP is testing a key $2 support within a descending triangle; a confirmed breakdown would target roughly $1.73 and potentially $1.61, whereas only a clear recovery above the pattern and improved on‑chain metrics or ETF flows would shift bias. In sum: short term — higher downside risk and reduced volatility due to thinner liquidity; medium/long term — neutral to bearish until on‑chain activity, derivatives open interest and ETF inflows show sustained improvement.