Nearly 48% of XRP Holders Are Underwater, Echoing Pre-2024 Rally Levels
On-chain data from Glassnode, cited by analyst Steph Is Crypto, shows about 52% of XRP’s circulating supply (≈60.57 billion tokens) is in profit, leaving nearly 48% of holders with unrealized losses. Profitability has fallen in recent weeks amid a broader crypto market downturn; XRP is trading around $1.86 and has struggled to reclaim the $2 level. The drop in holder profitability coincides with lower futures open interest and reduced funding rates, indicating cautious derivatives positioning.
Analyst notes this profitability share mirrors levels seen in November 2024, a period that preceded a sharp XRP rally into 2025 when price approached $3 after political and macro catalysts (post-election regulatory optimism). However, the analyst warns the same drivers are not present now. Current potential catalysts include regulatory developments such as the proposed CLARITY Act and growing interest in XRP ETFs. Traders should watch holder profitability, futures metrics, funding rates, and regulatory news for signals of changing risk appetite.
Neutral
The news is rated neutral. Nearly half of XRP holders being underwater signals elevated downside sensitivity and potential selling pressure, which is a bearish micro-signal. Simultaneously, the current profitability level mirrors the pre-2024 trough that preceded a strong rally, suggesting the market could be positioned for recovery if a catalyst appears. Present indicators — reduced futures open interest and lower funding rates — point to cautious positioning rather than aggressive shorts or leveraged longs, which usually limits violent moves in either direction.
Short-term impact: Likely increased volatility and softer price action as holders with unrealized losses react to price moves; lower leverage reduces the chance of rapid liquidations but also implies muted upside until a clear catalyst emerges.
Long-term impact: Dependent on external catalysts. If regulatory clarity (e.g., CLARITY Act progress) or ETF approvals materialize, the current profitability trough could precede a sustained rally, as seen in late 2024–2025. Absent such catalysts, prolonged bearish macro conditions could push profitability lower and sustain downward pressure. Traders should monitor on-chain profitability, derivatives metrics, and regulatory news to gauge timing and magnitude of moves.