XRP at a Crossroads: Hold $1.21 or Risk Deeper Drop to $0.49–$0.99
XRP continues to trade under pressure around $1.37, down roughly 60% from its July 2025 peak near $3.60. Technical analyst More Crypto Online (MCO) outlines two competing scenarios: a corrective B-wave recovery toward about $2.86, or a bullish Wave 5 rally that could target roughly $6 if the Wave 4 correction is complete. The key near-term level is $1.21 (50% Fibonacci of the prior impulse). A decisive break below $1.20 — particularly under February swing lows — could accelerate the correction toward a broader support zone between $0.489 and $0.989. Shorter timeframes show corrective three-wave patterns and range-bound action between roughly $1.21 and $1.54. Important intraday thresholds are $1.51–$1.52 (clearance would raise confidence a base is forming) and $1.67 (next resistance). If buyers fail to hold current levels, traders should watch $1.36–$1.31 and a possible dip to $1.19. The situation presents asymmetric outcomes: sustained recovery could push targets to $2.86–$6, while a breakdown would open much larger downside risk. This is analysis, not financial advice.
Neutral
The article presents balanced technical scenarios rather than a definitive directional catalyst. Key support at $1.21 is highlighted as make-or-break: holding it would enable a corrective recovery toward $2.86 (or, in a more bullish wave count, a move toward $6), while a decisive break below $1.20 could trigger a deeper correction to $0.489–$0.989. Short-term charts show corrective three-wave patterns and range-bound trading, indicating uncertainty and low momentum. For traders, this implies a neutral-to-cautious stance: tradeable ranges exist (buyable dips near support and shorts on confirmed breaks), but lack of confirmation argues against strong directional bets. Historically, similar prolonged corrective phases (extended multi-month consolidations after large impulsive moves) have produced sharp moves once key Fibonacci/support levels break or hold — so market reactions to $1.20–$1.21 will likely drive near-term volatility. In short-term trading, watch for volume-backed breakouts above $1.51–$1.52 or confirmed breakdowns below $1.20. For longer-term holders, sustaining above the 50% retracement improves recovery odds; a break below would increase the probability of multi-month lower price discovery.