XRP Ledger active wallets drop sharply, XRP sentinment cools
On-chain data cited by Santiment shows declining usage on the XRP Ledger during recent sessions. The number of active wallet addresses fell sharply, indicating weaker engagement and sentiment.
The article notes that average active wallet addresses over the past year have declined by about 41%. It also links the current weakness to a low MVRV (Mean Value to Realized Value) reading for XRP traders, described as the lowest since the FTX collapse in Nov 2022—an event that preceded a prolonged bear phase.
For traders, the piece adds that Santiment’s metrics show large negative average returns from actual trader yields, implying less “risk than average” when buying or adding XRP positions—though it frames this as partly a sign that market participants are under stress (the “blood in the streets” concept).
Separately, some analysts argue XRP may be entering a bottoming phase. One cited view suggests XRP’s price around ~$1.30 (down from ~$3.50 a year earlier) and an RSI move into extremely oversold territory, alongside falling search interest (e.g., Google Trends and X). The analyst also mentions potential macro catalysts like rate cuts, calmer global tensions, and renewed liquidity into risk assets.
Overall, the news centers on the XRP Ledger’s weakening active wallet count, while the trade implication is a possible stabilization/bottom attempt after a heavy drawdown.
Neutral
该消息对市场的直接驱动偏“情绪降温”，但并不完全等同于趋势继续走弱，因此定性为中性。
1）偏空的部分：文章强调“XRP Ledger 活跃钱包数”在近期快速下滑，且过去一年活跃钱包均值约降 41%。当链上活跃度下降、MVRV 处于历史较低区间时，通常意味着需求走弱、参与者减少，历史上这类阶段往往对应更艰难的反弹环境。文中还把当前低 MVRV 与 2022 年 11 月 FTX 之后的熊市阶段作了类比，增强了偏空叙事。
2）偏多/对冲的部分：同一篇文章又给出“筑底”逻辑——RSI 进入极度超卖、搜索热度回落后可能出现情绪反转，以及降息/流动性改善等宏观可能带来风险偏好修复。在以往的熊市后段，链上指标虽弱，但当超卖信号叠加流动性预期时，价格有时会先出现“反弹式企稳”，而非立即再创低。
3）对交易的含义：短期可能出现“脉冲式反弹/震荡筑底”，但如果 XRP Ledger 的活跃钱包继续下行，反弹容易被抛压打断。长期上，只有当活跃度与 MVRV 修复（或至少止跌）时，市场信心才更可能从“超卖反弹”走向“趋势反转”。
因此：链上走弱提供下行风险，但超卖与潜在流动性催化提供对冲，整体更像“在熊市末端的分歧期”，更符合中性判断。