XRP Leverage Reset After Fed—Derivatives Unwind, Demand Still Weak
XRP failed to hold above $1.35 as post–Federal Reserve deleveraging reduced derivatives activity to February-like levels. CryptoQuant data shows Binance XRP open interest fell to about $208M on April 29, effectively resetting leverage after the April 29 Fed decision.
The Fed kept rates at 3.50%–3.75%, and Chair Jerome Powell indicated he would remain a governor after his term ends. For XRP, the impact was immediate in the derivatives market: leverage unwound quickly, but spot demand did not arrive.
CryptoQuant also highlights weaker underlying buying on centralized exchanges. All CEX estimated spot CVD dropped to around $920M since April 17. In perpetuals, Binance Perpetual CVD moved deeper into net sell pressure (about -$271M to -$383M), suggesting sellers stayed active while leverage fell.
Liquidation flows reinforce the picture: long liquidations dominated from April 17 through month-end, with additional pressure around the April 29 headlines—adding supply during a period of cooling spot demand.
Traders’ takeaway: XRP’s market structure is “cleaner” (excess leverage removed), but recovery is conditional. A sustained rebound would require spot CVD to stabilize and turn up from the $1.35 area. Technically, XRP remains below major moving averages (50-day as near resistance), with overhead supply visible near $1.45. A break above $1.45 could open room toward $1.60, while losing $1.33–$1.35 risks a drop toward $1.25.
Neutral
定性为中性，核心原因是：XRP的“杠杆”已经被快速去除，但“需求”并未同步修复。CryptoQuant显示，4月29日美联储（利率维持3.50%—3.75%，鲍威尔表态将继续担任理事）触发了Binance未平仓合约回落至接近2月水平，说明风险敞口回吐较充分；同时现货CVD下滑、永续合约CVD转向更深净卖压、以及多头主导的强平都指向短线并不存在强劲的接盘资金。因此，这更像是“结构清理”，而非“趋势反转确认”。
短期上，1.35美元是关键枢轴：若现货CVD止跌并回升，去杠杆后的波动可能转化为上行动能（例如历史上在杠杆回吐后，市场常先进入横盘“蓄能”，等需求重新出现再选择方向）。但若需求继续疲弱，市场可能继续在窄幅区间内压制上行，甚至向下测试1.33—1.25。
中长期上，文章强调XRP仍低于50/100/200日均线，50日线为近期阻力，均线向下排列意味着宏观与技术结构仍偏压制。若后续能看到现货需求回暖与价格有效突破1.45并延续，才更可能扭转中期偏空结构；否则此次“XRP杠杆重置”可能只会带来短期情绪改善而非持续牛市行情。