Regression Model: XRP Targets $3.4, $10 and $27 as Key Decision Zones
An analyst known as Egrag Crypto applied a long-term logarithmic linear regression channel to XRP’s monthly price history and identified three primary decision zones: a mean-reversion area at $3.40, an expansion/upper-midline around $10, and an upper-bound cycle-top near $27. The model tracks average monthly prices and notes structural channel breaches during major selloffs — notably XRP fell below the channel in the May 2022 Terra collapse, briefly re-entered in late 2024–early 2025, then dropped under the lower trendline again from February 2025. Recent weakness continued into mid-2025: XRP pulled back from a July 2025 peak near $3.66 and traded in the low-$2 range (about $2.02) with selling pressure around $2. The analyst argues that a decisive, sustained monthly close above $3.40 would signal a renewed macro bullish trend and open a path toward the $10 expansion band; reaching the $27 zone would represent a potential multi-year cycle top supported by cycle symmetry, volatility, and extension ratios. The model emphasizes these levels as technical guideposts rather than guaranteed outcomes and advises disciplined risk management. This is analysis-only and not financial advice.
Neutral
The analyst’s regression model outlines clear bullish milestones (monthly close above $3.40, then $10 and ultimately $27) but does not present immediate price catalysts. Current price action—XRP trading in the low-$2 range after a substantial pullback and repeated breaches of the long-term channel—suggests continued near-term downside risk or sideways pressure until the channel is reclaimed. If XRP achieves a decisive and sustained monthly close above $3.40, trader sentiment and momentum could shift bullish, opening multi-month to multi-year upside toward the $10 expansion zone and, in an extended cycle, the $27 channel top. Absent that reclaim, the model implies neutral-to-bearish short-term dynamics with potential for volatility around the highlighted levels. For traders, the piece serves as a roadmap of technical decision points rather than a prediction: use the $3.40 level as a key trigger for bullish conviction, keep tight risk controls near current support ($2 area), and watch for confirmation on monthly closes before scaling long positions.