XRP Rally Driven by 2.7B Binance Reserve Drop and U.S. Spot ETF Inflows
XRP has rallied roughly 22% in recent sessions amid on-chain accumulation and fresh institutional demand. Since October 2025, Binance’s XRP reserves have declined by about 2.7 billion XRP, with continued withdrawals since November suggesting whale accumulation and reduced exchange sell-side liquidity. U.S. XRP spot ETFs, launched on 14 Nov 2025, have recorded uninterrupted net inflows, adding sustained institutional buying pressure. Derivatives markets show heavy long concentration — CoinGlass data points to approximately $72.5B notional in leveraged long positions clustered near the $2.13 liquidation area versus about $40.95B in shorts around $2.26 — while Open Interest rose 3.09% to $4.11B as XRP traded near $2.20. Technicals: a strong historical support at $1.85 has repeatedly triggered rebounds; key levels to watch are support at $1.85 and $2.13 and resistance near $2.26. For traders: falling exchange reserves and continuous ETF inflows are bullish signals reducing on-exchange supply and boosting demand, but elevated leverage and rising OI raise the risk of volatile price swings and liquidations (possible short-squeeze dynamics). Risk management is advised — trim position sizes, set clear stop-losses, and monitor on-chain reserve trends, ETF flow updates, and derivatives concentrations for trade triggers.
Bullish
The combined signals point to a net bullish impact on XRP. Declining Binance reserves and sustained withdrawals reduce on-exchange supply, which historically supports upward price pressure when paired with buying demand. Continuous net inflows into newly launched U.S. XRP spot ETFs provide steady institutional demand, reinforcing the bullish thesis. Technically, rebounds from the $1.85 support and current trading near $2.20 align with momentum-driven gains. Offsetting risk comes from heavy leverage and rising Open Interest: large clustered long positions (~$72.5B notional) and concentrated liquidation bands increase the potential for sharp volatility and washouts, particularly if price moves fast and triggers cascading liquidations or a short squeeze. Short-term impact: likely bullish continuation but prone to rapid spikes and retracements — traders should expect volatility around the $2.13–$2.26 derivative bands. Medium-term impact: if ETF inflows and on-chain accumulation persist, on-exchange liquidity may remain tight, supporting sustained price appreciation. Recommendation: manage position sizes, use stops, and monitor ETF flows, exchange reserve trends, and derivatives concentrations for signs of changing risk dynamics.