XRP market structure mirrors early 2022 as short-term buyers accumulate below older holders’ cost bases
On-chain data from Glassnode shows XRP’s market structure is becoming similar to early 2022: short-term wallets (1 week–1 month) are accumulating XRP at prices below the realized cost basis of six- to twelve-month holders. This divergence — captured by Glassnode’s Realized Price by Age bands — historically signals distribution stress, where newer entrants buy lower while earlier buyers remain underwater. Total Supply in Loss has risen to roughly 26 billion XRP, while Supply in Profit has fallen to about 40 billion, reinforcing holder stress after the late‑2025 pullback. Price action is fragile: XRP bounced toward the $2.00–$2.10 zone but remains below late‑2024 and mid‑2025 highs, and the Directional Movement Index shows muted trend strength. The report concludes the market is more likely entering a consolidation phase rather than a decisive bullish reversal; sustained upside would require reclaiming older realized cost bases and reducing supply-in-loss levels. Key implications for traders: heightened potential for prolonged range-bound price action, persistent selling pressure from older cohorts, and the need for clear reclaiming of cost bases to confirm a trend change.
Neutral
Glassnode’s metrics (Realized Price by Age and Total Supply in Loss) point to a classic distribution-type structure: short-term buyers accumulating below the cost basis of older holders. Historically — notably in early 2022 — this setup preceded extended consolidation and periodic downside as older cohorts felt pressured to sell during rebounds. Key indicators here support that narrative: rising supply in loss (~26B XRP), declining supply in profit (~40B XRP), and weak trend strength on the DMI despite short-term bounces. For traders, this implies elevated risk of range-bound trading and intermittent sell-offs rather than a sustained rally. Short-term traders may find opportunities in swing trades within defined ranges, while momentum or breakout traders should wait for definitive on-chain relief (notably a material fall in supply-in-loss and XRP reclaiming older realized cost bands) before assuming a bullish stance. If price does reclaim prior realized cost levels and supply-in-loss compresses, the outlook would turn bullish; absent that, the prudent expectation is consolidation with downside risk — hence a neutral-to-cautious market impact.