Analyst Keeps XRP Measured-Move Target Above $15 Despite 70% Retracement
XRP’s strong late-2024 rally and subsequent correction remain focal points for technical analysts. After rising from roughly $0.49 to above $3.60 (a 640%+ gain) by mid-2025, XRP has retraced about 70% and trades near $1.34. Analyst Javon Marks maintains a long-term measured-move target above $15, based on a November 2024 breakout from a multi-year triangle; that target implies >1,000% upside from current levels. Elliott Wave analyst XForceGlobal views the token as in a structural compression that could precede another impulsive wave, with conservative Fibonacci extensions near $6 and broader upside scenarios between $5–$10 if momentum returns. Monthly chart observers note five consecutive monthly negative closes—an uncommon pattern last seen before 2017’s rally—while on-chain data shows roughly $900m in realized losses during a single week, indicating short-term capitulation. Community commentators propose a wide range of targets (from $4–$10 to speculative charts exceeding $80), but most analysts emphasize that market liquidity, overall crypto market direction, and regulatory developments will determine outcomes. This article is informational and not financial advice.
Bullish
The article presents predominantly bullish technical arguments that keep a long-term upside case intact despite a deep retracement. Key reasons: 1) Measured-move projection from a multi-year triangle breakout (analyst Javon Marks) implies a >1,000% target above $15, signaling a strong structural thesis; 2) Elliott Wave commentary frames the current price action as a compression/consolidation that often precedes impulsive advances; 3) Historical monthly patterns (five consecutive negative months) and on-chain realized-loss data point to capitulation among short-term holders, which can reduce future selling pressure and set the stage for renewed buying if sentiment returns. Counterbalances include large drawdown (70% retracement), reliance on technical projections rather than fundamental catalysts, and potential regulatory or macro risks. Short-term impact: increased volatility and potential for relief rallies if buyers absorb recent capitulation; traders may look for confirmation (breaks of key resistance, volume expansion) before committing. Long-term impact: if the triangle breakout structure holds and market liquidity/support returns, substantial upside targets (mid-single to double-digit dollars) remain plausible. Overall, the news reinforces a bullish technical narrative but does not eliminate sizable execution and macro/regulatory risks.