XRP nears $1 as on-chain signals turn bullish for whales and spot ETFs
XRP is trading just above $1, at its weakest level of 2026, while the chance of a daily close below $1 is rising. Despite the bearish higher-time-frame structure, on-chain data shows a “silver lining” for XRP bulls.
On exchanges, XRP supply keeps shrinking. Binance’s XRP reserve fell to about 2.68B XRP (lowest since March), after ~100M XRP left over the past month. Withdrawal activity also led deposits for seven straight days: withdrawal transactions exceeded deposits since June 17, with the 7-day withdrawal share reaching 53.8% on June 23 (highest since June 2024). This suggests users are moving XRP off Binance more frequently.
Large holders remain net buyers. XRP whale flows on the 90-day moving average stayed positive at ~5.143M XRP per day across the quarter, indicating consistent accumulation rather than distribution.
Institutional demand improved via spot XRP ETFs. Net inflows were about $2M on June 24, lifting total June netflows to $31M and cumulative inflows since April to $243M.
Technically, XRP’s market structure remains bearish and the token is down ~43% year-to-date. Traders may watch a fair value gap between $1 and $0.63—an unfilled area from late-2024’s rally—if downside extends.
Neutral
The article frames a trade-off: XRP’s price setup is still bearish (higher-time-frame structure, risk of a daily close below $1), but key on-chain indicators point to underlying accumulation.
Historically, XRP tends to see sharper moves when exchange supply drops while whale flows stay positive—similar to other periods where traders feared “breakdown” but were offset by sustained off-exchange holding. Here, Binance reserve declines plus withdrawal-led activity suggest less immediate selling pressure. Meanwhile, positive whale flows and ongoing spot ETF inflows ($243M cumulative since April) can cushion dips and create bounce scenarios.
Short-term, traders may still hedge for a move toward the $1–$0.63 fair value gap if bearish structure dominates. Long-term, continued ETF demand and sustained accumulation off exchanges would improve the probability that $1 acts as a base rather than a breakdown level. Overall, the mixed signal set (bearish chart vs bullish positioning) supports a neutral market impact rating.