XRP on-Chain Capitulation Signals Deeper Bearish Stress
Glassnode reports sharp deterioration in XRP network health, pointing to holder capitulation and weakening demand. The 90-day simple moving average of XRP’s Realized Profit-to-Loss Ratio has fallen to 0.38. With 1.0 as the breakeven threshold, this means investors are realizing only $0.38 of profit for every $1 of realized loss—an extreme below-profit regime that Glassnode links to capitulation.
Alongside XRP profitability stress, transaction activity is also cooling. XRP Ledger total transaction fees (90-day average) dropped from about 5,900 XRP in Feb 2025 to roughly 500 XRP today (down more than 91%). The article notes that such damage to XRP holder profitability has appeared before: in Nov 2025, only 58.5% of circulating XRP remained in profit, the lowest since Nov 2024. Earlier, when XRP traded near $2.15, about 41.5% of supply (~26.5B XRP) was held at a loss.
For traders, the key takeaway is that XRP looks trapped in a loss-dominant cycle, with reduced on-chain fees and profitability weakening together. This combination often precedes prolonged consolidation until capitulation sellers exhaust or demand recovers.
Bearish
The article highlights two linked bearish signals for XRP: capitulation-style profitability and collapsing transaction fees. When XRP’s Realized Profit-to-Loss Ratio is far below 1.0 (0.38), it typically reflects loss-taking overwhelming profit-taking—often seen during capitulation windows where many holders sell at losses. At the same time, the >91% drop in XRP Ledger fees suggests weaker real demand and less network engagement.
Historically, similar setups (profits deteriorating while activity cools) tend to prolong consolidation rather than trigger a quick sustained rebound. In the short term, bearish sentiment can keep pressure on XRP price and raise the likelihood of volatility around support. In the long term, a turn is more likely only if realized losses stabilize and transaction fees stop falling—signaling sellers have exhausted and buyers are returning. Until then, traders may treat rallies as lower-conviction and watch for confirmation through on-chain fee recovery and improving XRP profitability metrics.