XRP investors capitulate as XRP slips toward $1 and leverage unwinds
XRP is sliding toward $1.02, its weakest level since February, as a broader crypto selloff pushes traders to cut exposure. Liquidations accelerated after XRP fell toward $1.07, triggering about $9M in XRP long liquidations (CryptoQuant). Binance accounted for roughly half (~$4.5M). Open interest is dropping across venues: Binance XRP open interest fell to around $205M (lowest since Mar 22) and Bybit to about $185M (near Jun 6 levels). Total tracked XRP open interest is about $2.34B, while futures turnover collapsed by over 90% year-over-year, showing speculative support fading.
The selloff is also reaching spot holders. Glassnode data show XRP’s 90-day moving average profit-to-loss ratio fell to 0.33, the weakest since Aug 2022—investors are realizing losses at the fastest pace since 2022. CryptoQuant’s risk-adjusted trend on Binance remains negative: XRP’s 30-day Sharpe ratio is about -0.29, and momentum stays below historical averages.
A near-neutral perpetual-versus-spot volume imbalance suggests derivatives positioning is not extremely stretched, which may reduce the odds of another liquidation spike, but it does not confirm spot demand will return.
Broader market weakness is reinforcing the move: Bitcoin dipped to ~$58,100 and recovered toward $60,000, while Ethereum slid toward ~$1,550. Market breadth deteriorated, with most non-stablecoins down in June, limiting rotation into XRP.
Bearish
Bearish bias is driven by both leverage unwind and spot capitulation. First, liquidation data show a classic momentum-to-liquidation loop: as XRP moved toward $1.07, long liquidations surged to about $9M, with Binance holding roughly half of the closed long positions. Second, open interest and futures turnover collapsed—open interest fell to multi-week lows (Binance/Bybit) and overall turnover dropped by more than 90% YoY—signaling that speculative positioning has materially reduced rather than simply being reset.
Third, on-chain profit-taking confirms broader holder stress. Glassnode’s 90-day profit-to-loss ratio hitting 0.33 (worst since Aug 2022) suggests investors are realizing losses at the fastest pace since 2022. Historically, this type of capitulation can help form a local floor, but it often requires follow-through demand; otherwise rebounds can be brief as supply remains eager to exit near their entry prices.
Short-term: continued weakness is likely while $1 remains a key magnet level. If XRP breaks and spot demand does not reappear, reduced leverage can lower the odds of another extreme liquidation cascade, but it also removes “forced-buy” dynamics that sometimes stabilize prices.
Long-term: persistent negative risk-adjusted momentum (negative Sharpe readings) implies that even if price stabilizes, trader appetite may take longer to return. Unless broader market breadth improves and spot bids return, XRP’s recovery may remain capped.