XRP Holds Near $1.29 as Ripple’s 1B Unlock Remains Untouched
XRP traded near $1.29 ahead of Ripple Swell 2026, down 15.8% over the past month. Ripple’s 1 billion XRP unlocked on October 1 remains in two company wallets, with no transfers recorded. Each wallet also has another 500 million XRP escrow scheduled to unlock on November 1.
Ripple announced final OCC approval for Ripple National Trust Bank, which will hold RLUSD reserves and provide institutional custody. Its new 24/7 Returns product lets eligible companies earn a return on RLUSD, but Ripple did not specify a rate. Neither announcement directly uses XRP.
Large wallets holding at least 10 million XRP control 46.87 billion tokens, or about 68.5% of supply—the highest share since November 2022. However, exchange inflows rose to a seven-month high, whale withdrawals weakened, and US spot XRP ETFs recorded $3.61 million in outflows on Monday.
XRP remains below its 50-day and 200-day EMAs, near $1.36 and $1.37. Traders are watching $1.2546 as support and $1.3992 as a potential resistance level. Transfers from Ripple’s wallets could provide a key signal about near-term XRP supply.
Neutral
The news is mixed for XRP, so the likely market impact is neutral. Ripple’s OCC approval and RLUSD yield product are positive for the company’s institutional reach and may support confidence in its broader ecosystem. But the article states that neither development directly uses XRP, so any immediate token-price benefit may be limited.
On supply, the 1 billion XRP unlocked in October remains untouched, reducing near-term concern about an immediate sale. Large holders’ share of supply has also risen to 68.5%, a potentially supportive sign if it reflects accumulation. However, concentration can also increase volatility because a small number of wallets control a large share of tokens. Another 1 billion XRP is scheduled to unlock on November 1, and transfers from Ripple’s wallets could quickly change traders’ expectations.
Other indicators are cautious: exchange inflows reached a seven-month high, whale withdrawals weakened, US spot XRP ETFs saw outflows, and XRP trades below its 50-day and 200-day EMAs. Similar announcements of regulatory progress or institutional products have often improved sentiment, but price gains have not necessarily followed when token demand is indirect or technical momentum is weak.
In the short term, traders are likely to focus on wallet movements and the $1.2546 support area. A sustained move above the EMAs near $1.36–$1.37 could improve the technical outlook, while a break below support may expose the $1.20 level. Longer term, the bank charter and RLUSD adoption could strengthen Ripple’s business, but XRP’s performance will depend on whether those developments translate into direct token demand and whether exchange selling pressure eases.