XRP supply in profit hits July 2024 lows as ETF outflows persist
Glassnode data shows XRP supply in profit has fallen to its lowest level since July 2024. The “Percent of XRP Supply in Profit” dropped to 43.4%, meaning most circulating XRP is now trading underwater. Traders may expect more sell-pressure and weaker rebound follow-through when XRP supply in profit continues to compress.
The report also points to pressure from US spot XRP ETFs. Total net assets are about $917M, down from over $1B earlier. Large outflows hit between March 5–12 (e.g., -$16.62M on March 6 and -$18.11M on March 9), before flows stabilized late March with near-zero days (e.g., -$1.32M on April 1).
Despite the bearish backdrop, derivatives activity is flagged as a possible setup for a short squeeze. Still, with XRP supply in profit at multi-month lows, any squeeze may struggle unless XRP can reclaim key resistance levels.
Bearish
XRP supply in profit跌至2024年7月以来低位，意味着在盈利仓位占比快速萎缩的情况下，抛压更可能对价格形成即时压力，反弹更易遇到上方套现/止盈与情绪性卖出。与此同时，US现货XRP ETF的资金流出（净资产从10亿美元上方降至约9.17亿美元，且3月初出现较大净流出）强化了短期资金面偏弱的预期。
短期内，若ETF资金继续流出且盈利盘进一步压缩，市场更容易出现“反弹无力、再度下探”的交易节奏。中期方面，文中提到的衍生品short squeeze可能带来波动上行，但在XRP supply in profit处于多月低位时，挤压需要价格先收复关键阻力，否则更可能演变为高波动但难以改变下行趋势的短线事件。