XRP Posts Largest Realized Loss Spike Since 2022 — Could a Big Rebound Follow?
XRP experienced its largest weekly on-chain realized loss spike since 2022, with readings near the prior milestone of −1.93 billion units. Realized losses occur when holders sell below their purchase price; the recent surge indicates many investors sold at a loss amid market stress. Analysts note the last comparable loss event (39 months ago) preceded a 114% price gain for XRP over the following eight months. Market researchers warn that while a large realized-loss spike does not guarantee an immediate rally, such spikes often appear near cyclical lows when panic selling exhausts weak hands, reducing future sell pressure. Traders and analysts are monitoring liquidity, trading volume, exchange flows, accumulation patterns and sentiment to see if selling abates and buyers return. Key implications for traders: heightened short-term price volatility, potential relief rallies if selling wanes, and the need to watch on-chain realized profit/loss metrics alongside volume and exchange flows for confirmation.
Neutral
The on-chain spike in realized losses signals significant panic selling and elevated short-term downside risk, which is bearish for immediate price action. However, historically similar realized-loss spikes have coincided with market bottoms and preceded strong recoveries (e.g., the prior −1.93B event that preceded a 114% gain for XRP over eight months). Because this indicator often reflects capitulation—after which selling pressure can subside—the net impact is ambiguous in direction: higher short-term volatility and downside risk, but an increased probability of a multi-month rebound if selling exhausts and liquidity/volume conditions turn supportive. Traders should treat the event as a potential turning-point signal rather than a direct buy trigger: look for confirming signs such as reduced exchange outflows, rising accumulation by long-term holders, improving volume on up-days, and stabilization in realized-loss metrics before assuming a bullish stance. Risk management (position sizing, stop levels) remains crucial given the potential for further downside if macro or sector-wide selling resumes.