XRP Rebounds to $1.31 as ETF Inflows Break and Exchange Reserves Rise
XRP rose nearly 2% to about $1.31 on October 19, but remained down more than 7% over the week. Trading volume increased 49.2% day over day to roughly $1.44 billion as the token attempted to recover.
US spot XRP ETFs recorded $1.84 million in net withdrawals for October 12–16, ending a 13-week inflow streak. Cumulative net inflows remained near $1.8 billion, while ETF net assets stood at about $1.47 billion.
CryptoQuant reported 11.81 billion XRP on exchanges, a high reading against the prior year. Binance XRP futures open interest fell from $538.1 million on October 4 to $453 million on October 17, while leverage also declined. These figures point to reduced leveraged exposure, but high exchange balances may add potential selling supply; they do not prove holders intend to sell.
XRP Ledger payment volume dropped 72.3% on October 17, though analyst Ali Martinez later cited a surge in transferred value near the $1.25 support level. On-chain transfers do not necessarily represent purchases. Technically, RSI at 38.48 and a negative MACD signalled weak momentum. Analysts identified $1.25 as key support and $1.56 as a level that could strengthen the recovery case. XRP’s rebound therefore comes amid mixed signals, with ETF outflows and weak momentum offsetting the daily price gain.
Bearish
The overall signal is bearish, despite XRP’s nearly 2% daily rebound. The ETF withdrawal was modest, but it ended a 13-week inflow streak after several weeks of weakening flows, suggesting institutional demand may be losing momentum. Elevated aggregate exchange reserves also represent a potential source of supply, although they do not confirm that holders plan to sell.
Derivatives data provide a mixed counterpoint: declining open interest and leverage suggest positions have been reduced, which can lower the risk of further forced liquidations. However, negative funding on several recent days and weaker whale activity point to subdued risk appetite. On-chain payment volume also fell sharply, while the reported surge in transferred value cannot be treated as confirmed buying demand.
In the short term, traders are likely to watch the $1.25–$1.30 support zone. A break below it could intensify selling and bring $1.10 or $1.00 into view. A sustained move above $1.56 would improve the recovery outlook, but weak RSI and MACD readings do not yet confirm a trend reversal. Similar episodes of ETF-flow reversals and rising exchange balances have often increased volatility, though neither metric alone reliably predicts price direction.
Over the longer term, sustained ETF inflows, lower exchange balances and stronger network activity would help support a bullish case. Until those signals improve, the rebound looks vulnerable and traders may remain cautious.