XRP enters stop‑loss phase as SOPR falls below 1.0; selling driven by small holders
XRP has entered a stop‑loss phase after on‑chain profitability metrics turned negative. The 7‑day EMA of the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) fell to 0.96 — the first sustained move below 1.0 since 2022 — indicating coins are being sold at a loss on average. XRP traded around $1.42–$1.45 at press time, down roughly 10% over the past week, 30% in the last month and about 60% from its July 2025 peak of $3.65. Spot volume rose 22% in 24 hours to $3.45bn while futures volume climbed 12% to $5.66bn; open interest slipped slightly to $2.50bn, implying traders are reducing leverage. On‑chain flows show whale selling is muted; selling pressure is concentrated among smaller holders. Technical indicators remain bearish: lower highs on the daily chart, declining 50‑ and 100‑day moving averages acting as resistance, the RSI below neutral, and price hugging the lower Bollinger Band. Key near‑term support sits at $1.35–$1.30, with a decisive daily close below $1.30 raising the probability of a drop toward $1.20. For traders, the setup signals continued downside risk and stop‑loss hunting, with potential short upward spikes that could attract whale selling. Primary keywords: XRP, SOPR, stop‑loss, on‑chain; secondary keywords: spot volume, futures open interest, whale flow, technical resistance.
Bearish
The combination of SOPR dropping below 1.0, negative on‑chain profitability, and increased selling concentrated among smaller holders signals that realized losses currently outweigh gains. Market internals show rising spot and futures volume but falling open interest, which is typical when traders close positions rather than add leverage — a defensive reaction that often precedes further downside or sideways action. Technical indicators (lower highs, declining 50/100‑day MAs, RSI below neutral, price at lower Bollinger Band) reinforce a bearish bias. Historical parallels include the September 2021–May 2022 period when SOPR remaining under 1.0 coincided with prolonged consolidation and occasional downtrends. Short term: elevated stop‑loss activity raises the likelihood of continued selling and lower price targets ($1.35–$1.30, then $1.20 if $1.30 breaks). Traders should expect volatility and possible short squeezes or brief rebounds that attract whale selling. Long term: if whales refrain from distributing, accumulation at lower levels could provide support, but until SOPR and momentum indicators recover, downside risk remains dominant. Risk management (tight stops, scaled sizing, and watching OI and whale flows) is recommended.