XRP Supply Drops Sharply; Pundit Warns Next Move Could Be Large
XRP community analysts report a notable contraction in exchange-held XRP and rising concentration among large wallets, prompting predictions of a sizable price move. Mullen’s on-chain review showed coordinated declines on major exchanges — Upbit (reported -6.22B XRP), Binance (-2.56B), Bithumb (-1.77B) — and steep reductions at Uphold, eToro, Bybit and Bitbank. Combined tracked exchange balances fell to ~15.86B XRP, down ~6.5B (29.1%) since February. Some outliers include Evernorth (+13.36%), Coincheck (+550M), and OKX (large percentage increase likely from wallet reclassification). The XRP rich list shows top 10,000 wallets holding ~51.39B XRP; recent whale activity added ~95M XRP across new and existing accounts while 78 large wallets released ~108M XRP — indicating rotation rather than wholesale exits. Analyst XFinanceBull highlighted that when supply tightens (shrinking exchange balances and concentrated rich lists), XRP often posts large moves. ETF inflows have also accelerated demand: XRP ETFs collected ~$874.3M since Nov. 13 (~401M XRP at $2.18), adding further supply pressure. The reporting cautions that on-chain snapshots can reflect wallet reshuffles and remain unconfirmed. Traders should watch exchange balances, whale flows and ETF inflows for short-term liquidity signals and potential volatility.
Bullish
The article reports a material decline in exchange-held XRP and rising concentration among large wallets, both of which reduce available sell-side liquidity and can amplify price moves. Historical patterns in crypto show that when exchange balances fall and ETF inflows rise, price volatility increases and the asset often trends upward as buying pressure meets reduced on-exchange supply. The reported ~29% drop in tracked exchange balances since February and ~$874M in ETF inflows are significant supply-side shocks. Whale accumulation and rotation (new accounts adding ~77M XRP, existing wallets adding ~17.9M) further suggest demand building. Short-term impact: higher volatility and potential rapid upside squeezes if buyers step in and exchanges remain drained. Traders should monitor exchange balances, notable wallet transfers, orderbook depth and ETF flow updates for entry/exit timing and risk management. Long-term impact: if outflows persist and ETF adoption continues, structural liquidity could tighten, supporting higher price levels, but risks include wallet reshuffles, accounting reclassifications (e.g., OKX, Coincheck anomalies) and possible distribution by large holders which could cap upside.