XRP price holds cycle bottom; analysts target $12 if support survives
XRP is trading near a long-term multi-year support zone, and analysts say the retest could trigger a major rebound toward $12. The article cites two technical views.
On the monthly chart, analyst MilkybullCrypto shows XRP moving within a rising channel that has guided price since 2014. XRP is currently near the channel’s lower trendline around $1.30–$1.40, an area that previously acted as a launchpad for large upside moves. The thesis is supported by momentum: the monthly RSI has cooled toward a historical support band near 40–45, a level that appeared before past rallies. A “probably going to $12” target is framed as roughly aligned with the channel midpoint.
On the shorter timeframe, analyst JD points to a two-week setup: XRP broke out of a multi-year symmetrical triangle, then pulled back toward the breakout region. A projected green target zone suggests a potential upside range of $8–$14 if the retest holds.
Fundamentals and flows are also highlighted. XRP is up about 30% from February lows near $1.11. The article links demand to US spot XRP ETF inflows: April totaled $81.6M (strongest month of 2026), and May’s first week has already seen $28.17M inflows. It also notes Rakuten Wallet’s XRP integration in Japan as a reach-expansion catalyst.
Risks remain. Bears may push XRP below the channel support, which would invalidate the bullish structure. The support area overlaps with the 50-month EMA near ~$1.33. If that cluster fails, attention shifts to the 100-month EMA near ~$0.93—roughly a 30% drawdown, similar to the 2022 bear-market behavior.
Bullish
The news is framed around XRP holding a historical cycle-bottom support cluster that has preceded prior rebounds, with multiple technical signals (monthly RSI cooling into a known support band, price trading near a rising channel lower trendline, and a nearby breakout-retest pattern). It also adds a near-term demand tailwind via US spot XRP ETF inflows (strong April and early May), which can support bids during retests. However, it explicitly flags a clear invalidation level: losing the channel/50-month EMA area around ~$1.33 would likely shift the probability toward a deeper move toward the 100-month EMA near ~$0.93—similar to prior bear-market dynamics.
For traders, the immediate implication is a “support test = decision point.” If XRP repeatedly defends ~$1.30–$1.40, the $8–$14 upside band and the longer-term $12 target become actionable scenarios, favoring long entries or bullish risk management around the support. If support breaks on volume, the chart-based structure suggests downside momentum could accelerate, making short-term hedges or reduced exposure prudent. Net effect: bullish bias as long as the support cluster holds, with elevated volatility around the retest.