XRP Support Weakens as ETF Inflows Slow and Long-Term Holders Reduce Supply
XRP’s structural support is weakening after an initial ETF-driven demand surge. Total net assets in XRP ETFs briefly rose to about $1.24 billion, but daily ETF inflows have tapered significantly, indicating cooling institutional demand. On-chain data from Glassnode shows wallets holding XRP for 2–3 years cut their share from roughly 14.26% to about 5.66% within a month, consistent with profit-taking or portfolio repositioning by long-term holders. Derivatives activity corroborates this shift: Binance futures open interest fell to around $450 million, the lowest since November 2024, reflecting deleveraging and widespread position closures (mainly long liquidations). Combined, slower ETF accumulation, shrinking long-term holder supply and declining open interest point to reduced market participation and weaker structural support for XRP. Traders should monitor ETF daily flows, HODL Wave movements, on-chain address activity and futures open interest for signs of renewed demand or continued distribution, as these indicators will likely drive short-term price volatility and help gauge recovery or further downside risk.
Bearish
The combined signals point to a bearish outlook for XRP in the near term. Key factors: 1) ETF inflows have cooled — while AUM remains elevated (~$1.24B), falling daily inflows reduce fresh, stable demand and remove an important buyer class. 2) Long-term holders (2–3 year cohort) sharply reduced their supply share from ~14.3% to ~5.7% in a month, indicating profit-taking or distribution by a historically steady supply segment. 3) Open interest on Binance futures dropped to about $450M, the lowest since November 2024, signaling deleveraging and the closure of long positions, which removes leveraged buying pressure and can amplify downside moves. Together these factors reduce market participation and structural support, increasing vulnerability to short-term negative sentiment and volatility. For traders, this suggests higher downside risk and choppier trading conditions until on-chain inflows, renewed ETF demand, or rising open interest indicate rebuilt participation. Short-term strategies to consider: tight risk management, reduced directional exposure, watch for accumulation signals (persistent ETF inflows, rising OI, LTH share stabilization) before increasing long exposure. Longer-term impact depends on whether ETF demand resumes and long-term holders return; without that, structural weakness could persist.