XRP Eyes Wave 5 Breakout — Analysts Point to $5–$5.85 Targets Amid Whale Sales
XRP is showing technical signs that analysts interpret as the start of an Elliott Wave 5 rally. Chartists report that monthly Wave 4 ended near $1.88 (161.8% Fib extension) and price is approaching a descending resistance; a confirmed breakout above the trend and past $2.22 (70.2% retracement) could mark Wave 5’s start. Shorter timeframes show bullish setups: a 4-hour pennant breakout with near-term targets of $2.30–$2.60, and a rectangular bull flag projecting a longer target (one analyst’s flagpole-based projection cited as ~$24). Fibonacci extensions were used to set longer-term objectives, with one analyst highlighting a potential $5.85 target (261.8% extension). On-chain metrics complicate the outlook: Santiment data and on-chain observers report significant whale distribution — wallets holding 1–10M XRP sold over 2.2 billion XRP in the past month, including ~460M sold in four days and ~180M recently. Binance reserves fell to ~2.7B XRP, with ~300M leaving since October. Despite whale selling, XRP has staged a mild rebound, leaving momentum and breakout confirmation as key triggers for traders. Primary implications: watch for a decisive breakout above the descending resistance and $2.22 to consider bullish trade setups; manage risk given large-scale whale distribution and low exchange reserves.
Bullish
Technical indicators across multiple timeframes suggest bullish potential: monthly Wave 4 completion, approach to a descending resistance, and short-term bullish patterns (pennant, bull flag) imply that a confirmed breakout — notably above $2.22 and the trendline — could trigger a Wave 5 rally with targets cited between $3 and $5.85 (and farther by some analysts). These setups give traders clear entry triggers and logical targets, supporting a bullish classification. Offsetting risks come from heavy whale distribution (over 2.2B XRP sold) and declining exchange reserves (Binance ~2.7B XRP), which increase sell-pressure risk and could cap rallies or produce sharp pullbacks. Historically, similar scenarios where technical breakouts coincided with large off-exchange distribution produced volatile rallies that reversed quickly if whales continued selling (examples: past altcoin pumps in 2017–2018 and 2020–2021 where exchange outflows preceded volatility). Short-term: a confirmed breakout would likely produce rapid upside and momentum-driven moves; failure to break or renewed whale selling could trigger swift retracements. Long-term: sustained bullish trend requires continued reduction in selling pressure and accumulation by retail/on-chain buyers; persistent whale distribution could limit long-term upside until holdings rebuild or supply tightens on exchanges.