XRP Traders Warn of “Wave Three” After July Oversold Signal and Ripple News
An XRP technical analyst says traders may be underestimating what’s next for XRP as July historically brings sharp moves. Analyst Austin (@Austin_XRPL) highlights a six-year “every July pumps” pattern since 2020, including XRP runs from $0.19 to $0.32 (2020), a major 2023 jump after the court ruling (not a security), and 2024 gains up to about $0.64. Last July, XRP hit an all-time high near $3.65, but Austin argues the 2025 peak was a bull trap, followed by a bear phase.
For this cycle, he believes XRP has completed a one-year correction from that bull-trap top and is poised for a fast reversal into a “wave three.” On weekly and monthly charts, he cites RSI at historically oversold levels going into July. He also points to weak market sentiment and a potential falling wedge setup as conditions that could support a breakout toward new all-time highs.
Catalyst context: Austin ties the outlook to Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse’s emphasis that utility—not “financial engineering”—creates long-term value, alongside Ripple’s XRP Ledger work. He also references Ripple’s role as a day-one partner for the stablecoin Open USD and mentions discussion around whether Ripple could revisit interest in acquiring Circle.
Risk note: the article frames this as a technical and sentiment-driven thesis for XRP, not financial advice.
Bullish
The article’s core thesis for XRP is a bullish setup: a historically consistent July pump pattern since 2020, plus an analyst claim that XRP has finished a one-year correction and is ready for a “wave three” reversal. The cited weekly/monthly RSI being at “historically oversold” levels often precedes sharp mean-reversion rallies, especially when broader sentiment is washed out.
It also blends technical structure (potential breakout from a falling wedge) with fundamental-side narratives around Ripple’s utility focus and stablecoin ecosystem expansion (Open USD). While those headlines don’t guarantee price, they can improve speculative confidence and liquidity expectations.
Compared with similar past dynamics cited here—2023’s reaction to the security ruling and the previous July rallies—traders may front-run a seasonal move. Short-term, this could raise buy-the-dip behavior and increase volatility around key breakout levels. Long-term, if the “wave three” count holds, it supports a continuation toward new highs; however, the article itself warns the prior peak was a bull trap, meaning failure of technical levels could quickly flip the trade thesis.