XRP Elliott Wave View: Drop to $0.87–$1.09 Needed to Flip Bearish Trend
Crypto analyst Casi says XRP is likely still in Wave 2 and may need to break below $1 before it can flip the bearish trend. XRP has fallen about 50% since Q4 2025 turbulence, trading near $1.41.
On the 1-hour chart, Casi tracks an ABC sub-wave inside Wave 2. After a Wave 1 drop (from $1.60 on Mar 17 to ~$1.36 on Mar 23), XRP bounced in Wave 2 then formed sub-wave A (to ~$1.46) and sub-wave B (back to ~$1.38). She argues the structure remains valid as long as support areas hold.
What’s next: Casi expects sub-wave C to push XRP up toward ~$1.485 (around the 50% Fibonacci retracement). Then Wave 3 would correct sharply lower, targeting the $0.87–$1.09 zone, where XRP could finally gather strength to flip the bearish trend.
Invalidation levels: the bearish Wave 2 structure could be broken if XRP falls below ~$1.36 support. The idea that XRP must first reach $0.87–$1.09 is also invalid if XRP rallies above ~$1.65 before that deeper drop happens.
Another analyst, EGRAG Crypto, also highlights the significance of $1.65. Traders may use these XRP levels to plan entries, hedges, and risk controls while broader market moves—especially Bitcoin—remain key for confirmation.
This is informational and not financial advice.
Bearish
该文章的核心结论是：要让XRP“翻转看跌趋势”，市场可能还需要先经历进一步下跌。预测路径明确指向0.87–1.09美元区间，并给出1.36与1.65的失效/确认条件。若交易者将这些点位作为行情触发信号，短期更偏向做空或至少保持更高对冲需求，因此整体偏看跌。
从交易机制上看，这与以往“技术结构确认前先回撤”的情形类似：当艾略特波浪或类似形态提示尚未完成回调段时，反弹通常更容易被当作“走完子浪C后的分歧点”，随后进入更深的第3浪调整。短期内，1.485附近的反弹可能吸引追多，但若无法突破并按计划转入Wave 3，回撤至0.87–1.09会对市场情绪形成压力。
中长期上，如果XRP真的在0.87–1.09形成波段底部并重新获得上攻动能，那么“翻转看跌趋势”可能在更后段兑现；但在此之前，结构性下行预期会影响资金分配与风险偏好。投资者也应关注BTC等大盘因素：文章提到BTC对Wave B的尊重，意味着跨资产联动仍可能决定XRP能否按预期完成结构。